Air cargo demand up 8.3% in November

November 2023 recorded the strongest year-over-year growth for global air cargo markets in nearly two years. Global demand for air cargo, measured in cargo tonne kilometers (CTK), rose 8.3% YoY, and international operations grew 8.1% YoY, according to the November data released by IATA today. IATA attributes this growth to November 2022’s weak market and the rebounding market in the fourth quarter of 2023. Capacity, measured in available CTKs, was up 13.7% YoY globally and 11.6% YoY for international operations. “Most of the capacity growth continues to be attributable to the increase in belly capacity as international passenger markets continue their post-COVID recovery,” IATA stated in today’s report. Compared to November 2019, demand is down 2.5% while capacity is up 4.1%, according to IATA. “November air cargo demand was up 8.3% on 2022 — the strongest year-on-year growth in almost two years,” IATA Director General Willie Walsh said in the release. “That is a doubling of October’s 3.8% [YoY] increase and a fourth month of positive market development. It is shaping up to be an encouraging yearend for air cargo despite the significant economic concerns that were present throughout 2023 and continue on the horizon.” Factors that affected air cargo markets in November, according to IATA, include: The manufacturing output Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and new export order PMI remaining just below the 50 mark, “with small positive movements indicating a deceleration of the economic slowdown”; Global cross-border trade recording growth for the third consecutive month in October, reversing its previous downward trend; Inflation continuing to soften, as measured by the corresponding Consumer Price Index (CPI), in the United States, Japan and European Union, while China’s CPI fell YoY for the second month in a row; and Air cargo yields continuing their upward trend, up 8.9% since October. “Rising yields are in line with improving air cargo load factors over recent months,” IATA stated. “This could be tied in part to booming e-commerce deliveries from China to Western markets.” [caption id="attachment_57139769" align="alignnone" width="1024"] (Courtesy/IATA)[/caption] Asia Pacific Asia-Pacific carrier cargo volumes increased by 13.8% YoY, nearly double its increase of 7.6% YoY in October. Available capacity for the region rose 29.6% YoY, largely driven by increasing belly capacity as pandemic restrictions lessened in 2023, according to IATA. North America North American carriers saw the weakest demand growth in November with a 1.8% YoY increase in volume. Nevertheless, this was an improvement from October, when demand fell 1.8% YoY. Capacity increased 4% YoY. Europe European carrier cargo volumes increased by 6.7% YoY, improving upon October’s 1% YoY increase. Capacity increased 6.5% YoY. Middle East Middle Eastern carriers had the strongest performance in November, with a 13.5% YoY increase in cargo volumes, in line with the previous month’s demand increase of 13% YoY. Capacity increased 15.4% YoY. Latin America Latin American carriers saw a 4.2% YoY increase in cargo volumes, similar to October’s 4% YoY increase. Capacity rose 7.7% YoY. Africa African carrier cargo volumes increased 3.9% YoY, improved from October’s 2.9% YoY growth. Capacity rose 14% YoY.

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