Vaccine shipments account for 120,000 tonnes of airfreight, Cargo Facts Consulting finds

After months of tracking the international production and distribution process for the COVID-19 vaccine, Cargo Facts Consulting has concluded that the vaccine’s effect on global airfreight will be relatively modest. The additional intercontinental and intraregional traffic will amount to around 50,000 tonnes of air cargo spread unevenly across the next two years. However, it is important for cargo and logistics operators to understand the various air flows that will be most impacted. In addition, CFC has estimated 70,000 airfreight tonnes of domestic air cargo, mostly originating in the United States, Europe and India and, to a lesser extent, China, Brazil and Japan. This includes both vaccine shipments with domestic origin as well as those with an international origin for domestic redistribution. The CFC interactive dashboard shows how much airfreight will be moved across the different air flows, based on production sites and destinations. Most vaccines are now being developed and produced by corporations in the United States, Europe, China, India and Russia, but new arrangements are allowing for some vaccines to be produced in other countries. For instance, in an effort to reduce logistics and import constraints, AstraZeneca has built several regional supply chains to provide rapid access to as many countries as possible, following regulatory approval. Currently, the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine is being produced in the U.S., India, the UK, Brazil, Mexico, South Korea and Australia, and will soon start production in Japan. EU Distribution The European Union Commission has decided to diversify its portfolio of vaccine orders for all EU citizens and has secured a total of 2 billion doses so far. The Commission intended to purchase vaccines from different suppliers to increase the chances that one or more candidates would be approved by the European Medicines Agency (EMA). If all vaccines ordered turn out to be effective and safe for general distribution, all Member States may donate a portion of their doses to lower-income countries. Figure 1 shows how the EU’s order of 2 billion doses is distributed across the Member States. Figure 1 – European Union distribution of COVID-19 vaccine doses across its Member States [caption id="" align="alignnone" width="975"] Source: Cargo Facts Consulting, European Commission[/caption] The COVID-19 Vaccine Interactive Dashboard In order to determine the air tonnage required by each country and map the distribution by air across the globe, we have considered the following variables: production sites, confirmed vaccine orders, supplier location, weight of the vaccine and its packaging, and the share of doses to be transported by road versus air. To further break down the air-flow segments, CFC has divided shipments into four different types: Intercontinental air — doses moving across different continents (i.e., North America to South America); Intraregional air — doses moving across different countries within the same region (i.e., Thailand to Indonesia); Domestic air — doses moving within the same country or economic zone (i.e., United States or the European Union); and Domestic air upon arrival — doses moving domestically by air after arriving from a different continent (i.e., North America to Brazil and domestically within Brazil). Below, Figure 2 shows the four types of air-flow segments listed, with examples from various airports. Figure 2 – Examples of air-flow distribution segments [caption id="" align="alignnone" width="994"] Source: Cargo Facts Consulting[/caption] Access the interactive dashboard through cfcinsights.com.

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