Boeing WACF: E-commerce lifts North American cargo growth prospects

Air cargo traffic in the North American market is expected to grow at 2.6% per year over the next twenty years, according to Boeing’s biennial World Air Cargo Forecast (WACF). The growth rate forecast for 2020-2039 was 0.3 percentage points higher than that predicted by Boeing for 2018-2037.

Apart from Latin America-Europe, which was 0.1 percentage points higher, Boeing’s growth rate forecast for every other market was lower compared to the 2018 WACF.

Globally, Boeing predicts air cargo traffic to grow at 4.0% per year through 2039. That growth will continue to be led by the Asia-Pacific region, with the domestic China market forecast to grow at 5.8% and intra-East Asia and Oceania at 4.9%.

Europe-East Asia and East Asia-North America are the markets with the next-highest growth rates, at 4.4% and 4.3% respectively.

According to Boeing, U.S. domestic traffic will account for 96% of total revenue tonne kilometers in the North America market, growing at an average of 3.9% during the next ten years “as e-commerce market share grows and providers continue to build networks and fleets.” Combined with a slight leveling off in the following ten years, traffic is projected to grow by 2.7% over the twenty-year period.

See also: Cargo Facts Consulting’s 2020 Global E-Commerce Logistics Outlook

The COVID-19 pandemic has wreaked havoc on aviation generally, even if the air cargo market has been affected to a lesser extent. Darren Hulst, vice president of commercial marketing at Boeing, said the significant widebody belly capacity shortfall has resulted in freighter aircraft utilization being about 20% higher than normal.

Airlines have also resorted to using passenger aircraft to carry cargo only, whether or not they also operate freighters. To date, Cargo Facts has recorded more than 2,500 passenger aircraft being used in this way by around 200 airlines.

While overall traffic from January to September 2020 was down 12% year on year and capacity 25% lower, revenues were 16% higher and yields climbed 42%.

Those that solely operate freighter aircraft have benefitted the most from the current conditions, with express carriers seeing 14% more traffic from January to September 2020 compared to last year, and all-cargo carriers flying 6% more traffic, according to Boeing.

Boeing also reaffirmed its Commercial Market Outlook and said the global freighter fleet is forecast to grow over 60% from 2,010 to 3,260 aircraft by 2039, with 51% of 2,430 aircraft being added used for growth and 49% as replacements.