Aircraft delivery delays to hinder freighter renewal, growth

The air cargo industry could experience a record peak season and see growth in 2025. However, the industry may be constrained by geopolitical tensions, new tariffs and shortfalls in aircraft delivery, according to IATA. Aircraft supply chain Aircraft supply chain issues will continue to negatively affect the commercial aviation industry in 2025, IATA economist Ghislaine Lang said during a webinar today. For 2024, IATA highlighted the following: The average age of the global fleet, including passenger aircraft and freighters, stands at a record 14.8 years, up from 13.6 years from 1990 through 2023. The industry will see 30% fewer aircraft deliveries than predicted at the start of the year. 2025 deliveries are expected to reach 1,802, down from an earlier expectation of 2,293. The backlog for new aircraft has reached 17,000 planes, a record high. At present delivery rates, this would take fourteen years to fulfill. These delays will limit the number of production freighters and passenger aircraft entering the market, IATA Director General Willie Walsh said during the webinar. This will hinder efforts to modernize freighter fleets, he said. Additionally, the delays in delivering passenger aircraft will keep older units flying longer, limiting conversion feedstock, Walsh said. However, the use of dedicated freighters has mostly normalized during the past year or so, returning to pre-pandemic levels, Lang said. [caption id="attachment_57147156" align="aligncenter" width="995"] (Courtesy/IATA)[/caption] The only exception is on trans-Pacific routes, where the use of dedicated freighters has continued to rise since the pandemic. Lang attributes this to reduced passenger travel in Asia, especially from China, thereby reducing belly capacity. 2023, 2024 results Air cargo economic growth was fairly stable in 2023 and 2024, according to Lang. 2023 saw “comparatively healthy economic growth,” she said, despite being hampered by: Inflation; Geopolitical tensions ; and New cross-border trade restrictions. Nearly 3,000 trade restrictions were imposed in 2023 — about five times more than in 2015 — resulting in a contraction of global trade, Lang said. Even though many of 2023’s headwinds carried over to 2024, the World Trade Organization (WTO) expects merchandise trade volumes to grow 2.7% in 2024 and 3% in 2025. However, geopolitical unrest and political uncertainties could jeopardize this, according to the WTO. Air cargo traffic contracted in 2022, but the tide began to turn in mid-2023 due to e-commerce growth and attacks in the Red Sea, Lang said. As of October, global air cargo traffic grew for fifteen consecutive months , according to IATA data. September’s air cargo traffic , measured in cargo tonne kilometers, grew 9.4% year over year, ending a nine-month streak of double-digit growth. “So far, despite some anticipations that this year’s peak season was going to be very chaotic, it turns out that the October spike actually was unexceptional in historic comparison,” Lang said. Nevertheless, “we are experiencing a very strong Q4 and it’s likely going to turn into a record peak season after all.” [caption id="attachment_57147155" align="aligncenter" width="988"] (Courtesy/IATA)[/caption] Air cargo rates fell significantly in 2024. It was roughly six times more expensive to ship something by air than by sea in 2024, while it was ten to fifteen times more expensive pre-pandemic, Lang said. [caption id="attachment_57147157" align="aligncenter" width="986"] (Courtesy/IATA)[/caption] 2025 forecast IATA expects cargo volumes to reach 72.5 million tonnes in 2025, a 5.8% increase from 2024. Cargo revenues are expected to reach $157 billion — 15.6% of total commercial aviation revenues — in 2025. Demand is likely to grow 6% YoY and average yield to fall 0.7% YoY but remain above pre-pandemic levels, according to IATA. Air cargo will likely continue to benefit from the Houthi attacks on shipping vessels in the Red Sea and growing e-commerce out of Asia, according to IATA. While the attacks in the Red Sea benefit air cargo, overall geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine have a detrimental effect. Achieving peace in either conflict will buoy air cargo, particularly in the case of the Russia-Ukraine war, according to IATA. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s promised tariffs also bring uncertainty and potential risks, according to IATA. Tariffs and trade wars would likely dampen demand for air cargo. Register now for Cargo Facts' essential regional events for industry stakeholders: Cargo Facts LATAM 2025 on Feb. 10-11 at the Pullman Sao Paulo Guarulhos Airport in Brazil; Cargo Facts Asia 2025 on March 24-26 at the W Shanghai in China; and Cargo Facts EMEA 2025 on May 6-8 at the Shangri-La Bosphorus in Turkey.

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