Airfreight demand surges 10.8% in December

Air cargo demand rebounded in the fourth quarter of 2023 despite economic uncertainties, leaving 2023’s full-year demand slightly below those in 2022 and 2019. Global demand in 2023, measured in cargo tonne kilometers (CTK), was down 1.9% year over year and down 2.2% YoY for international operations, according to December data released by IATA today. Compared with 2019, global demand was down 3.6% YoY and down 3.8% for international operations. Capacity in 2023, measured in available CTKs, was up 11.3% YoY globally and 9.6% YoY internationally. Compared with 2019 levels, capacity was up 2.5% YoY globally and steady for international operations. “Despite political and economic challenges, 2023 saw air cargo markets regain ground lost in 2022 after the extraordinary COVID peak in 2021,” IATA Director General Willie Walsh said in the release. “Although full-year demand was shy of pre-COVID levels by 3.6%, the significant strengthening in the last quarter is a sign that markets are stabilizing towards more normal demand patterns. That puts the industry on very solid ground for success in 2024.” December 2023 recorded a strong performance: Global demand was up 10.8% YoY and international demand was up 11.5% YoY. This was the strongest annual growth performance over the past two years, IATA stated. Global capacity was up 13.6% YoY and international capacity was up 14.1% YoY. Despite improved Q4 figures, Walsh warned there could be challenges ahead. “With continued, and in some cases intensifying, instability in geopolitics and economic forces, little should be taken for granted in the months ahead,” he said. [caption id="attachment_57140040" align="alignnone" width="1024"] (Courtesy/IATA)[/caption] Red Sea disruption Air cargo experienced a modest rise in demand and yields in November and December due to disruptions in the Red Sea, IATA stated. Houthi rebels have been firing missiles at ships traveling in the Red Sea to the Suez Canal since mid-October in a show of support for the terrorist organization Hamas. Comparing the week ending Dec. 9 to the week ending Nov. 4, IATA CargoIS data showed: A 1% increase in global air cargo demand and a 5% increase in yields; A 2% increase in demand and a 6% increase in yields in Asia Pacific; A 1% increase in demand and an 11% increase in yields between China and the rest of the world; Steady demand and a 3% increase in yields in Europe; and Steady demand and a 4% increase in yields in the Middle East. Data for the last half of December showed a normalization of demand and yields. “The recent disruption to maritime routes in the Red Sea has seen some shippers pivot to air cargo,” Walsh said in the release. “The increased demand saw a spike in air cargo yields on related trade lanes. A similar spike is expected in January as disruptions intensified. While not all cargo is suitable for air transport, it is a vital option for some of the most urgent shipments in extraordinary circumstances. And that is critical to the continuity of the global economy.” 2023 regional performance For the full-year 2023, compared with 2022: Asia-Pacific carriers saw a 0.9% increase in demand and a 28.5% increase in capacity; North American carriers saw the worst YOY performance of all regions, with a 5.7% decrease in demand and a 0.3% increase in capacity; European carriers saw a 3.9% decrease in demand and a 4.5% increase in capacity; Middle Eastern carriers saw a 1.6% increase in demand and a 13.5% increase in capacity; Latin American carriers posted the strongest YoY performance of all regions, with a 2% increase in demand and a 13.2% increase in capacity; and African carriers saw a 1.8% decrease in demand and a 5.6% increase in capacity. December regional performance For December 2023, compared with December 2022: Asia-Pacific carriers recorded the best performance of all regions, with an 18.5% increase in demand and a 31.1% increase in capacity; North American carriers saw a 2% decrease in demand and a 2.4% increase in capacity; European carriers, which “continue to be most affected by the war in Ukraine,” according to IATA, saw an 8.6% increase in demand and a 7.4% increase in capacity; Middle Eastern carriers saw an 18.3% increase in demand and a 17.7% increase in capacity; Latin American carriers saw a 6.4% increase in demand and a 3.5% increase in capacity; and African carriers posted the weakest performance of all regions, with a 1.2% decrease in demand and a 7.4% increase in capacity.

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