Global air cargo traffic stays strong amid 2025’s headwinds

Global air cargo traffic in December contributed to 2025 ending on a strong note, though uncertainty persists heading into 2026. Air cargo traffic , measured in cargo tonne kilometers (CTK), rose 4.3% year over year in December, while traffic on international lanes was up 5.5% YoY, according to data released Jan. 29 by IATA. [caption id="attachment_57295235" align="alignright" width="1688"] (Courtesy/IATA)[/caption] “Air cargo delivered a strong performance in 2025, with demand up 3.4% YoY,” IATA Director General Willie Walsh said in the release. “Global e-commerce strength drove volumes, even as trading relationships with the U.S. faced rising tariffs, the removal of de minimis tariff exemptions and continuing policy uncertainty.” Buoyed by peak season demand , November and July tied for the second-highest YoY air cargo traffic increase at 5.5%, while April led the year with a 5.8% increase. External factors Among operating factors highlighted by IATA were: Global trade grew 4.4% YoY from January through November 2025. Global jet fuel prices fell 3.1% YoY in December, dropping for the first time in three months, while crude fell for the seventeenth consecutive month by 15.3% YoY. The monthly average spot price for U.S. Gulf Coast jet fuel in December was $1.97 per gallon, making it the lowest December price since 2020, according to the Energy Information Administration. The purchasing manager’s index (PMI) for global manufacturing throughput in December was 50.9, the highest for the month since 2021. A PMI above 50 indicates growth and one below 50 indicates contraction. For the ninth consecutive month, the PMI for new export orders remained below 50, dropping to 49.1 in December from November’s 49.9, reflecting ongoing caution amid tariff uncertainty. [caption id="attachment_57295234" align="alignright" width="1691"] (Courtesy/IATA)[/caption] Regional performance Asia-Pacific and African carriers led air cargo traffic growth in 2025. Middle Eastern, European and Latin American carriers continued to see traffic increase for the year. North American carriers, meanwhile, were the only global operators to see a decrease in air cargo traffic. By region YoY: Asia-Pacific carrier traffic grew 9.4% in December and 8.4% in 2025, while capacity increased 7.4% in December and 8.3% in 2025. North American carrier traffic decreased 2.2% in December and 1.3% in 2025, while capacity dropped 2.6% in December and 1.1% in 2025. European carrier traffic grew 4.9% in December and 2.9% in 2025, while capacity increased 3.9% in December and 3.1% in 2025. Middle Eastern carrier traffic grew 4.2% in December and 0.3% in 2025, while capacity increased 10.6% in December and 4.5% in 2025. Latin American carrier traffic decreased 4.1% in December but grew 2.3% in 2025, while capacity increased 4.5% in 2025. African carrier traffic grew 10.1% in December and 6% in 2025, while capacity increased 9.8% in December and 7.8% in 2025. Trade lane performance Geopolitical uncertainty, along with ongoing trade wars, continue to contribute to the decrease in air cargo volume between Asia and North America. The shift in traffic showed signs of growth along the Asia-Europe, Asia-Middle East and intra-Asia corridors in 2025. “Air cargo rose to the occasion,” Walsh said. “It adapted quickly to support global businesses and supply chains as they front-loaded product deliveries ahead of tariff impositions and adjusted to rising demand within Asia and between Asia and Europe as U.S.-Asia trade stagnated.” Intra-Asia grew 10% in 2025, capturing 7.4% of the air cargo market; Europe-Asia grew 10.3% in 2025, capturing 21.5% of the air cargo market; Middle East-Asia grew 5.8% in 2025, capturing 7.4% of the air cargo market; Africa-Asia fell 1.9% in 2025, capturing 1.3% of the air cargo market; Middle East-Europe fell 3.4% in 2025, capturing 5.2% of the air cargo market; North America-Europe grew 6.8% in 2025, capturing 13.5% of the air cargo market; Asia-North America fell 0.8% in 2025, capturing 23.4% of the air cargo market; and Intra-Europe fell 1.4% in 2025, capturing 1.9% of the air cargo market. Cargo Facts will present four invaluable events for airfreight professionals in the first half of 2026, starting with Cargo Facts LATAM, on Feb. 10-12. To see the agendas and register for the events, visit CargoFactsEvents.com .

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