Prolonged war would magnify stress in cargo operations, industry executive warns

The war in the Middle East will have significant ramifications for air cargo if prolonged, a senior industry executive warns. An estimated 15% to 18% of global air cargo capacity was grounded following the Feb. 28 strikes on Iran by the United States and Israel, Glyn Hughes, director-general for The International Air Cargo Association, said March 4. [caption id="attachment_57295747" align="aligncenter" width="800"] Doha Hamad International Airport remains closed. (Courtesy/Incide Engineering)[/caption] The attack led to the closure of airspace in the region. “Capacity is already being squeezed in many parts of the world, generating a backlog of cargo,” Hughes said. “The extended zone or region that’s under attack means that five major air cargo hubs in the Gulf are really suffering.” Some shippers have had to write off time-sensitive cargo that spoiled. “We’re already seeing the impact, and we do expect that impact to be even more considerable if this situation drags on,” he said. About 25% to 30% of China-Europe cargo and about 80% of India-Europe air cargo goes through the Middle East, Hughes said. “In the latter case, this means that many of the vaccines, much of the pharma and the treatment drugs cannot make their way to Europe,” Hughes said. “So, we could have a social impact. … We could start to see drug shortages or anticipate drug shortages.” Logistics giants weigh in It is too early to say what the impact of the Gulf conflict will have on airfreight, Kuehne + Nagel Chief Executive Stefan Paul said during an investor conference call on March 3. But, he said, “there is a strong likelihood of a change in the supply-demand situation. By the end of this week, the beginning of next week, we’ll most probably see certain backlogs of cargo arising in Southeast Asia and in China for the European and U.S. marketplaces.” Rates up Amid the closed airspace and grounded flights, weekly airfreight rates are on the rise, according to Freightos data released March 4. China - N. Europe increased 7% to $3.49/kg; Europe - N. America increased 3% to $2.74/kg; and China - N. America increased 2% to $6.39/kg. “Qatar Airways and Emirates … together with Etihad make up about 13% of global capacity. Their hubs serve as a major east-west connection point, making up, for example, about a quarter of all China - Europe capacity,” according to Freightos. Rerouting challenges Rerouting flights from Asia or India to Europe to avoid the Middle East air space means longer flights and inefficient use of capacity, Hughes said. A prolonged conflict would lead to a massive backlog of cargo, limiting availability of charters deployed to ease congestion and driving up flight costs, he said. Estimating that supply chains have been disrupted for at least ten days, he said “On routes that are actually showing high load factors, the cargo that's currently stranded is likely to take several weeks to actually be cleared throughout the global network.” Hughes said that, despite the Iran war, the industry is expected to grow about 3% this year, driven by economic resilience and demand for e-commerce, pharmaceuticals, high-tech products and semiconductors. “However, the impact of the conflict will result in a dent in cargo volumes for every week it continues,” he concluded. Cargo Facts will present four invaluable events for airfreight professionals in 2026, the next of which is <a style="color: #ff0000;" href="https://cargofactsevents.com/asia/?utm_campaign=22235567-CF%20Asia%202026&utm_source=Editorial&utm_medium=article%20event%20footer&utm_term=CF%20website&utm_content=Learn%20More&utm_source=Weekly+Update+-+Cargo+Facts&utm_campaign=fbe548904b-CF+Update_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_621baa6827-fbe548904b-40083601&mc_cid=fbe548904b&mc_eid=adbe8bb0b4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cargo Facts Asia on March 23-25. To see the agendas and register for the events, visit CargoFactsEvents.com .

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