Intra-East Asia air cargo traffic to lead growth over next 20 years

Global air cargo traffic will grow at an average of 4.1% per year over the next two decades, with traffic within the East Asia region leading the pack at an annual growth rate of around 5.7%. The numbers are driven by e-commerce, structural changes and freighter fleet developments, according to Boeing’s latest biennial World Air Cargo Forecast (WACF) for 2022-2041, released today. [caption id="attachment_57132826" align="alignright" width="464"] Worldwide air cargo traffic growth 2022-2041. (Photo/Boeing)[/caption] The Intra-East Asia and Oceania market was previously expected to grow at 4.9% per year in Boeing’s 2020-2039 WACF, which also predicted a worldwide growth rate of 4%. “Keep in mind that over twenty years, just under 4% annual growth rate will double the level of traffic,” Darren Hulst, vice president of commercial marketing at Boeing, said in a virtual briefing Tuesday. East Asia-North America and East Asia-Europe will continue to be the two largest air cargo markets by far, with expected annual growth rates of 4.4% and 4.5%, respectively. A major driver of air cargo growth and freighter demand is the development of e-commerce networks. “These networks continue to expand and it’s not just the mature operators; this is inclusive of significant activity in the startup space or new logistic markets and networks that are being created, especially in emerging parts of the world,” Hulst said. “Whether it’s in China, Southeast Asia, India or Latin America, big e-commerce names are joining with airlines or creating airlines to create their own networks to satisfy the tremendous demand that exists in the e-commerce space. I think structurally this is something that sustains demand, especially in the standard-body freighter space as they build and mature these networks throughout the rest of this decade.” A strategy shift Another driver is a shift in supply chain strategies that has seen new operators entering the space or diversifying into carrying freight in addition to passengers. “I think all of that speaks to the strategic value of air cargo and the resilience and the importance of air cargo as part of the supply chain and the global economy,” Hulst said. When it comes to dedicated freighter aircraft, as Air Cargo World sister publication Cargo Facts reported from the Farnborough International Airshow in July, Boeing’s 2022 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) predicts 2,795 units to join the global fleet between now and 2041, 185 more than had been predicted in its 2021 CMO. These consist of 515 production large widebodies, 425 production medium widebodies, 555 widebody conversions and 1,300 narrowbody conversions. The manufacturer now anticipates the total fleet to grow from 2,240 freighters at the end of 2021 to 3,610 by the end of 2041.

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