No sign of December traffic rebound for combination carriers

After a month-to-month uptick in air cargo demand between October and November 2019, there was hope that peak season demand would push annual comparisons into positive territory in December 2019. While anecdotal reports suggest some regions and commodity segments saw an increase in December cargo traffic year over year, combination carriers showed little sign of improvement from November. Among the combination carriers reporting December 2019 traffic, most reported declines, except China Southern, EVA Air and Turkish Airlines. Most declines were larger than the 2.5-3.5% anticipated by WorldACD and IATA. We will have to wait until WorldACD and IATA report their conclusions in early February, but modest declines in the range of 0-1.5% are expected. As can be seen in the chart at right, and in the details below, demand growth in November appears slightly higher compared to November 2019 . Turning to the results on a carrier-by-carrier basis: Asia-Pacific Cathay Pacific Group reported a 5.7% YoY decline in cargo and mail to 979 million freight tonne kilometers (FTKs). While this is less than the 6.7% year-to-date decline to 11.3 billion FTKs, it still indicates weakness in the market. Meanwhile, tonnage declined 2.9% YoY in December to 177,561 tonnes, and 6.1% year to date to 2.0 million tonnes. Commenting on the cargo performance, Ronald Lam, chief customer and commercial officer, noted that December cargo demand was on par with November traffic. “Our mainland China and Southwest Pacific routes were the outstanding performers, recording both month-on-month and year-on-year improvement in sales,” he said. Looking ahead to 2021, Cathay Pacific Cargo remains focused on specialty cargo, including perishables and e-commerce products. Singapore Airlines reported December cargo traffic down 9.9% YoY to 557 million FTKs, while cargo tonnage declined by 3.6% to just over 943,000 tonnes. Year-to-date traffic is up 1.6% to 6.6 billion FTKs. Air China’s cargo traffic for December was 5.1% lower than the same month last year at 402 million FTKs. Overall tonnage decreased by 0.9% to about 129,000 tonnes. For 2019, traffic was down 4.0%, and tonnage was 1.8% lower than during the same period in 2018. China Southern’s traffic for December increased by 4.1% YoY to 679 million FTKs. Year-to-date traffic saw a slight increase of 0.7% at 7.5 billion FTKs. Domestic traffic for the carrier was up 7.1% YoY, while international traffic increased by 3.3%. Month over month, the carrier’s total cargo handle increased 2.9% from November. China Airlines reported cargo traffic down 7.7% YoY for the month of December to 490 million FTKs. Despite capacity reductions of 5.1% compared to last year, load factors dropped 2.0 percentage points YoY. EVA Air’s cargo traffic saw growth of 3.3% YoY for the month of December to 307 million FTKs. Load factors were down 5.2% with a 10.3% YoY increase in available tonne kilometers (AFTKs) for the month. Year to date, EVA’s cargo traffic is down 6.7% and tonnage is down 9.9%. Europe and the Middle East Lufthansa Group reported a decline of 3.6% YoY in its December traffic to 734 million FTKs. The carrier saw weaker demand for the Americas and Asia Pacific regions, which saw declines of 8.8% and 2.0% YoY, respectively. For 2019, Lufthansa reported a 2.1% decline in its overall traffic to 10.6 billion FTKs. Air France-KLM’s December cargo traffic declined by 4.1% YoY to 734 million FTKs. Air France saw a decline in traffic of 1.5% YoY to 343 million FTKs, while KLM reported a modest 6.3% decline to 391 million FTKs. For the entire year, the group’s total cargo traffic was down 2.2% YoY to 8.4 billion FTKs. International Airlines Group reported that group traffic dropped 7.8% YoY in December to 458 million FTKs. All IAG subsidiary carriers saw declines in cargo traffic for December. Year to date, IAG’s cargo traffic declined 2.4% to 5.5 billion FTKs, compared to the same period the year prior. Turkish Cargo reported a 6.0% YoY increase in cargo tonnage carried, to just over 137,000 tonnes. For the full year 2019, cargo volumes are up 9.2% YoY to more than 1.5 million tonnes. Americas LATAM Cargo reported December traffic down 3.2% YoY to 305 million FTKs. The Santiago-headquartered group finished the year in the red with cargo traffic down 1.6%, to 3.5 billion FTKs. Join us Feb. 3-5 for Cargo Facts EMEA 2020, the event serving as an international platform providing attendees with a direct connection to leading EMEA innovation executives. To register and for more information about the event, visit www.cargofactsemea.com .

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