Spring peak arrives early for China’s freighter operators

Freighter utilization rates by China’s “Big Three” combination carriers surged 83% month-to-month for the week of March 5-11, to nearly 3,000 flight hours, according to flight-tracking data analyzed by Cargo Facts . Compared to the same weeklong period in January, freighter flight hours were up 16%. Despite a precipitous drop in freighter hours flown between January and February, down 36% MoM for the weeklong period of Feb. 5-11, resulting from the disruptive measures taken to contain the outbreak of the novel coronavirus in China, air cargo demand rebounded in March, creating peak-like conditions for supply chains handling Chinese imports and exports. See also: Cathay operates passenger aircraft as freighters to replace lost bellyhold capacity China Southern recorded the largest jump in freighter utilization from Feb. 5-11 to March 5-11, with an increase of 170%. China Cargo, meanwhile, showed the highest change between Jan. 5-11 and March 5-11, with an increase in utilization of 23%. Apart from the weeklong period in February, China Southern also posted the highest average utilization per aircraft in the same period in both January and March, at around 93 and 105 hours, respectively. China Southern’s fleet is about to grow even more. In March 2019, the carrier announced it would take two more 777Fs from Boeing . The first unit included in the order recently completed final assembly at Boeing’s Everett plant and has already been painted. Delivery is expected shortly. While the varying timing of the Lunar New Year holiday in China often muddies annual comparisons for the months of January and February, the uptick in freighter utilization during the early days of March is stark in comparison to the same week in the preceding two months. The carriers will soon be reporting February stats that are expected to show significant declines in cargo traffic. If March continues along this trajectory, however, the picture will not be as grim. An executive at one of the “Big Three” carriers told Cargo Facts he expects its freighter fleet to be pushed to the limit until at least mid-April. Current market conditions, he said, resemble the demand bump that typically occurs a week before Easter. This year, however, the boost came early and may last longer. With thousands of domestic and passenger flights cancelled, bellyhold capacity is insufficient to meet demand and reliance on freighter aircraft has grown. Though many parts of the Chinese economy are starting to return to normal, civil aviation lags behind industrial production in the recovery curve. Multiple sources close to Chinese carriers were doubtful the domestic market would return to normal much before summer. The lack of bellyhold capacity combined with low oil prices are two trends that bode well for freighter operations in the months to come. Still, the increasing uncertainty surrounding the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, now intensifying on a global basis, will ultimately determine whether air cargo experiences headwinds or tailwinds. Mainland China’s “Big Three” combination carriers operate an aggregate freighter fleet numbering thirty-four aircraft. Guangzhou-based China Southern Cargo operates the largest fleet among the three, with twelve 777Fs and two 747-400Fs. Beijing-headquartered Air China Cargo operates eight 777Fs, and three 747-400Fs. Shanghai-based China Cargo Airlines has six 777Fs, two 747-400Fs, and a 747-400ERF. It should be noted that, in addition to its own fleet, Air China Cargo also operates four 757-200PCFs on an ACMI basis for China Postal Airlines. These aircraft are in express service and are omitted from our count.

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