The narrowbody freighter conversion market is currently extremely strong. At this rate, Cargo Facts Consulting expects to see around 100 redeliveries in 2021, with potentially similar numbers in 2022, when we may see around sixty 737NG redeliveries, plus at least ten A321P2Fs.
These numbers are much higher than those we have seen in previous years, and are inconsistent with what we predicted in our latest twenty-year fleet forecast, published in April: about forty additions and just under thirty retirements per year.
Is the market overheating? What are we missing?