Listen: Sustainable engines, inoperative engines and widebody competition

In this week’s episode of the “Cargo Facts Connect” podcast, Cargo Facts Editor Jeff Lee and Associate Editors Andrew Crider and Robert Luke discuss news that Rolls-Royce has successfully tested its hydrogen engine platform. The test opens a door for hydrogen fuel technology in aviation, but what impact will it have on cargo? Meanwhile, Boeing has suspended the testing of its 777-9 passenger aircraft due to an engine issue. Will this also further delay the aircraft’s freighter sibling? How will this and other developments affect the 777-8F vs. A350F battle? Tune in for a discussion of these topics and more for the week ended Dec. 2, 2022. A transcript is available below. This transcript has been generated by software and is being presented as is. Some transcription errors may remain. Andrew Crider Hello, and welcome to this episode of cargo facts connect the podcast of cargo facts, the newsletter of record for the air cargo and freighter aircraft industries for over 40 years. I'm your host Andrew Crider, associate editor of cargo facts. Robert Luke And I'm Robert Luke, associate editor of cargo facts. Jeff Lee And I'm Jeff Lee, editor of cargo facts. Andrew Crider Gadfin startup starts drone delivery in Israel. Beginning later this year, JLPS Ireland is nearing the delivery of its first a321 P two F and dronehub is planning its entry into the US market. You can read those stories on cargo facts.com. But what you can't read is Rolls Royce tested the hydrogen variant of their ae 2100 Dash eight Rolls Royce told us that they were sure that there would be continued interest across the industry to bring zero carbon technology solutions to market and the target for hydrogen is from the mid 2030s for the rollout of this engine. That's what they told us. Rob, do you see this hydrogen engine as a viable future in the cargo market? Robert Luke Andrew, I am greatly encouraged by this breakthrough and announcement by Rolls Royce and here's why I'm gonna kind of answer the question with another question. What this unfolding and looking at the projected timeline for sustainable aviation fuel to actually matriculate into the industry to have a significant impact. Which one do you think is going to reach that milestone first, and have the greatest effect because we know what sustainable aviation fuel it's a cleaner fuel, but hydrogen takes it to a completely different level? So I'm gonna throw that back at you and ask what your thoughts on that response. Andrew Crider I think hydrogen is the most abundant element in our universe, or at least the known parts of that universe, by the way. And if the only product is water, it makes a whole lot of sense, but I am worried about it. Given that, you have to then develop these huge hydrogen storage tanks, and they will still have the weight of an electric fuel cell to power it. And we saw on some hydrogen platforms, like he modified hydrogen 206. Or apologies modified hydrogen 208, which took a little bit of a performance dive when outrigged with hydrogen pods. Jeff, what do you think about that? Jeff Lee I think you meant Cessna 206, and Cessna 208 Instead of hydrogen, two o six, and hydrogen two o eights, Andrew Crider Hydrogen modified. I'm excited about the new technology Jeff Lee Maybe they should be called hydrogen to a six and hydrogen two o eights? No, but I think we are really starting to see these initiatives take off and which is good for the environment, of course, but they do have all these safety considerations, cost considerations. And just, you know, whether it how practical these things are. But it is happening. And I think we will kind of start to see, just like, unmanned operations and drones generally, perhaps these things will all on the cargo side kind of take the lead, simply because there are fewer people involved. And we actually saw a lot of announcements and things at the Airbus summit that took place this week, didn't we Robert Luke all right. And that's a great point. I definitely received that. But you said one thing that stuck out to me, volume and size that's being significantly reduced because of the hydrogen containers that are required to successfully power this, this new design of thrust. Ultimately, these operators, you know, are going to look at the dollars and cents. So and I'm thinking, I'm trying to think like a CEO, I'm in the back of my mind. Do I want to just go with electric? Or do I just want to just try to continue to push the the sustainable aviation approach, or do I go hydrogen? And when I think that way, it's because if I go with the hydrogen engine, how much volume or business or profit potential Am I losing? Because now I have to set aside a certain amount of space on my aircraft to accommodate the fuel source for the hydrogen engine. What are your thoughts on that? Andrew and Jeff, Andrew Crider I think you bring up a good, really good point because with the The drone manufacturers we talk to folks like dronamics, who announced earlier this month that they would make hydrogen variant of their drone. But in all likelihood that you would be deploying that variant alongside its synthetic fuel, drones and the other folks like Natilus or the Rasma, manufacturing the Zepelin in Russia, who've decided that they're going to start with conventional engines before switching to something a little bit more sustainable. And I think we got that same sentiment from xwing as well. You know, engines are complicated. It's gonna take a lot of time. Jeff, did you have anything else to say on that? Because I have something further as far as the engines being complicated part. Jeff Lee No, go ahead. I'm looking forward to hearing Andrew Crider With the engines being complicated part. There was a major upset earlier this week as Boeing put a pause to the passenger triple seven dash nine flight test program. Now, we haven't had an opportunity to reach out to Boeing to begin speculation on how that might delay the delivery of their first graders. But even if it's a delay of a couple of months or years in a serious situation, how do we think this plays into the biggest competition in the cargo industry right now? The triple seven versus A350. Robert Luke All right, I'll interject here, Andrew, real quickly, just to give a quick, quick thought on this. There's two ways we can look at it. Boeing can be applauded, first and foremost, for being proactive enough to try to have a more stringent approach to the technical acceptance and airworthiness standards that probably are exceeding what the FAA is requiring right now. So the fact that they identified this and made it public shows that they're trying to be careful about their product, they're more concerned not only just about their bottom line dollar, but the client and the lives of the people that will be operating these newer vehicles once they are integrated into regular operational status. Another approach is also beneficial Boeing is that we've got our market pretty much pretty much solidified when you look at the triple seven 300 conversions that are coming out when you look at the triple seven f that's already rolling strong out of the factory built production models that they're they're putting out there, and people are still having a strong demand and interest in. Not to mention the 767 and a medium sector is still pretty strong. From a demand standpoint. I think it doesn't really, it can't do any more damage than what's already been done to the company thus far from what they've experienced over the past couple years. Jeff, what are your thoughts? Jeff Lee I was gonna say that the timeline for the freighter is is a pretty long one. And we are, you know, at least four or five years away from even, you know, the first prototype rolling out so I hope I'm right, but I mean, I don't think it will have that big an impact on the freighter side but of course, I mean, we we simply don't know what what the issue is at the moment. But in terms of timing, I mean, yes, the this plays back into the rivalry between Airbus and Boeing on their on their large widebody freighters because Airbus the 350 is they're targeting 2025 entry into service, which is already you know, two years before the the triple seven dash 8 F and this is a factor when customers are trying to decide which one they want. It's not the only factor of course, but for example, you know, when when Silk Way spoke at our event in San Diego they they did say that, and this was before they they announced they had ordered the triple seven dash 8 f as well. But when they ordered the A350. Consideration was that that was basically they didn't have the the triple seven Boeing hadn't launched the triple seven dash AF although they probably had been talking to customers about it. And they had already ordered the current generation triple seven freighters back then so the timing does matter. And But of course, like with these new developments, new programs, delays, unfortunately kind of are to be expected. And I mean, we Yeah, let's just hope that this isn't too big of a setback. Andrew Crider Well, I, I would say that if this is all Boeing's game to lose, the triple seven was marketed out, in part, at least at cargo Facts symposium as the best viable replacement for the aging 747 population. And then another thing to consider on that front is at the Airbus symposium earlier this week, Airbus said that the new cabin design for the freighter would add 11 inches on the inside. And that means more volume and more space. Now, they said that that would be used for a walkway that is going to help the loading process so maybe faster turnaround time. But if you the fact of the matter is these 747s will have to be pulled out of service, and whether Boeing if Boeing doesn't have a replacement, I see nowhere else for customers to look then the 350 Jeff Lee Oh, yeah, because I mean, that a 350 is also being targeted as 747 replacement. And, you know, not everyone needs it aircraft as large or as powerful as the range that the triple seven dash eight has or that or the payload. And, you know, which is why, you know, we have Singapore Airlines, selecting the 350 to replace the seven four sevens. So, yeah, I mean, they each have their, their, their benefits. And I mean, not Yeah, not everyone is going to need the triple seven dash eight. Robert Luke And just to add to that, guys, you know, going back to some initial discussions we've had about this, you know, COVID really just accelerated what the operators and lessors were already strategically planning, which was to provide customization to the needs of each client, instead of forcing the client to customize their needs to the hub and spoke system, which is take a bunch of stuff to one central area and then redistribute it. Whereas a lot of these operators are like, no, I'd like to just have a point to point strategy where I can take what I want directly to my client, where I can have a better control of what how it's being delivered, when it's been when it's being delivered, and how much is being delivered to them on a on a consistent basis. So the a 350 will definitely support that. It's kind of like if you think about it in a weird way, it's like the Dreamliner of a freight because it's, you know, got the flexibility, it's got the range, it's got that price point, affordability, it's sizable enough, or it's not too big, not too small. But also, you know, there is a market need for the triple seven, eight F once it does come into play, and it will get its share of the market once it is ready for for production. But we all pretty much can say right now, there is, you know, COVID just accelerated the transition from the traditional method of delivering payload to the specialization of delivering express shipping. So I do definitely think that's where we're going to see a definitive growth positively. As you know, customers now have a plane that can specifically meet their needs directly. Andrew Crider Robert makes a very good point. And to that, I do wonder in this for the both of you. Do we think that if we had an another delay delay on the triple seven dash eight path, who would benefit for the A 350 F, or on the heels of their first flight? IAIs triple seven conversion program, or mammoths triple seven conversion program, or NIARs triple seven conversion program. Who's the winner? Its triple seven conversions or the 350 F. Robert Luke I think both. And here's why. Because like we just mentioned, you know, everybody has a specific makeup and performance requirements they have to fulfill, not to mention a specific strategy that they're implementing for their operational purposes. If the triple seven eight F does have an extended delay beyond what's currently been mentioned, then that gives more feedstock more demand more reliance on the conversion types of the triple seven variant because there are operators that are going to need those heavy volumes I mean your DHL or FedEx UPS is they're going to look for something to replace their work. Their workhorses which the seventh fours because are they about to change just their structure of operations? No. So they're going to need a triple sevens to fulfill that, that that that component of the seven four, once it's officially obsolete and no longer eligible to continue flying. The A 350 is going to be that that one that caters to the smaller operators that say, say, you know, we used to have to feel compelled to get these bigger airplanes, but the A 350 affords us the option of not having to do that. So I think it's going to be an even distribution from that angle. Jeff, what are your thoughts? Jeff Lee Well, I mean, I was gonna say the, I mean, the A350 Is, is not as large as the triple seven dash 8f, but it is still very much a large wide body freighter. And so, but no, but I mean, the triple seven dash 8 f, the 350. And the three triple seven, conversion programs don't overlap entirely. So you will have companies that you know, probably will not be considering the triple seven conversions. In any case, or vice versa. You have people that are not going to be interested in the brand new production freighters. So, whether or not the any potential delays, minor or major affect that decision, I'm not sure. Andrew Crider And on that, I believe that that's all we have the time for today. For more multimedia coverage, like this search cargo facts connect on iTunes and Spotify and search cargofacts.com. Thank you very much for joining us. Subscribe to Cargo Facts Connect on iTunes or Spotify , or download the episode on Transistor . Cargo Facts EMEA, the essential event for stakeholders in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, will take place live Feb. 6-8 in Dubai. Register today to take advantage of early-bird pricing.

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