Cargo Facts Symposium Day 1: key takeaways

[caption id="attachment_412738" align="alignright" width="423"] An appraisers roundtable at Cargo Facts Symposium 2019. Pictured left-to-right: Doug Kelly, SVP asset valuations, AVITAS; George Dimitroff, head of valuations, Ascend; Lindsey Webster, VP asset valuations, Morten Beyer & Agnew; Mike Yeomans, head of valuations, IBA Group, and Mark Halsor, President, AISI and AAMI.[/caption] SAN DIEGO – A crowd of distinguished air cargo executives gathered for Cargo Facts Symposium 2019, held at the Intercontinental San Diego. Although the air cargo industry faces uncertainty on multiple fronts such as trade and political headwinds, and aircraft program complications, delegates remain overwhelmingly upbeat on long-term growth prospects for the industry. A few highlights from day one of the Symposium include: The 737-800 may be in a pickle, but is expected to become the most successful narrowbody freighter. During Cargo Facts Symposium Boeing announced an order for ten 737-800BCF conversions from an unidentified customer [FATs 005202-5211]. This brings the total number of orders and commitments for the 737-800BCF to 130 units, 30 of which were logged in 2019. Panelists on an appraisers panel, and 62% of delegates voting in a live poll at the Symposium, expect the 737-800 to be converted in the greatest numbers among the Classic and NG airframe types, which include A320-200, A321-200, 737-400 and 737-800 airframe types. Not so fast, said George Dimitroff, head of valuations at Ascend. Dimitroff opined the success of the 737-800 as a narrowbody freighter could ultimately depend on how the pickle fork issue plays out, and whether there is a significant impact on the conversion cost. Other panelists see the issue as temporary, and expect the long-term impact to be minimal. Despite interest in the 777-300ERSF, it’s not a replacement for the noseloading 747-400F . Atlas Air, in particular, does not see a clear successor to the 747F and the An-124, because the production 777F and the newly announced 777-300ERSF will not serve as replacements for very-large freighters. Among active freighter programs, “Boeing does not currently have enough widebody production capacity to sustain long-term growth for the airfreight industry,” said Michael Steen, chief commercial officer of Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings, prodding at Boeing and Airbus for additional developments on that front. Moreover, Oliver von Tronchin, director of freighter marketing at Airbus, remains skeptical of the 777-300ERSF’s ability to achieve 100+ tonnes of structural payload. As an airframe that caters to international markets, Airbus sees ideal density of 8-8.5 pounds per cubic foot. “It will have a role, but it will have a very specific market,” said von Tronchin. Panelists agreed that airships or dirigibles could eventually serve a role in outsized cargo transport, but Thomas Crabtree, regional director of airline market analysis and sales support at Boeing Commercial Airplanes, cautioned that the lack of infrastructure for dirigible operations on a global basis will limit their application. DHL Express potentially interested in the CRJ 200 freighter? The express integrator is exploring how converted regional jets might fit within its feeder operations. “What we’re looking at right now is on some long, thin routes, a network where we would bring a large aircraft into a big station, and then push out a number of regional freighters to the final tertiary market,” said Rob Hyslop, senior vice president of global aviation at DHL Express. “In that regard, we’re looking at one aircraft in particular – the CRJ 200 freighter, which seems to have the legs and the carrying capability to do this hub-to-tertiary market lift.” Cargo Facts believes that other integrators may also be looking into regional freighters for their domestic express networks in the U.S. To finish the day, delegates enjoyed a scenic cruise along the San Diego waterfront.

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