Boeing lowers annual world cargo growth forecast slightly to 3.5%

Boeing has lowered its world cargo growth forecast to 3.5% per year through 2045 from 3.7% annual growth. The new figure appeared in Boeing’s biennial World Air Cargo Forecast, published on Oct. 28 at TIACA’s Air Cargo Forum in Miami. [caption id="attachment_56866739" align="aligncenter" width="651"] Boeing sees global cargo volume growing at 3.5% per year (Courtesy/Boeing)[/caption] “The air cargo industry set a new annual traffic record in 2025, with global demand growing nearly 5% year over year despite trade volatility and geopolitical disruptions,” the company said in the report. That said, networks must adapt to new geopolitical disruptions that will change trade flows and require rerouting. Shifting production locations could also influence the growth rate, Boeing said in the report. One of the primary drivers of cargo growth will be e-commerce, especially in the developing economies of Asia and Latin America. The East Asia-North America market — the world’s largest air cargo flow — is forecast to nearly double by 2045, while inter-Asia trade is expected to increase 3.2 times by 2045, the report said. More cargo aircraft The U.S. airframer also this week reiterated its global freighter aircraft forecast, first published in July at the Farnborough Airshow , saying that the dedicated cargo fleet will grow 67% to 4,010 airplanes by 2045 from 2,395 aircraft now. That’s nearly 16% higher than Airbus’ planned growth over the same period. Time-sensitive shipments for advanced manufacturing and AI hardware, diversifying supply chains and increasing global e-commerce will drive growth, Boeing said in a release. Large widebodies The airframer added that dedicated freighters are expected to carry more than half of global air cargo traffic, with the rest going as belly cargo in passenger aircraft. “Boeing believes that air cargo demand will grow faster than trade,” Mike Stengel, an analyst and partner at AeroDynamic Advisory, told Cargo Facts . “So that flows down into not only a larger fleet in 2045 and slightly more deliveries, but their mix is also a little more heavily weighted toward the large widebodies in particular. So that's 777-X territory.” Boeing said large widebodies will account for 875 units, with mid-size widebodies at 915 units and narrowbodies at 1,140 units. Of those freight airframes, two-thirds will be converted passenger aircraft, with the rest new-production aircraft. Some 1,315 airframes will be replacements, with 1,615 new aircraft joining the fleets, it said. Main drivers Last week at Cargo Facts Symposium in Nashville , Airbus released its 20-year freighter forecast, saying it expects the size of the freighter fleet to increase to 3,460 units by mid-century. Both companies agree that North America and Asia will be the primary drivers of growth, but Boeing’s forecast is marginally more bullish for the Asia-Pacific region. It said Asia will account for 1,035 aircraft, while Airbus said the number would be 850. For North America, Boeing expects 905 aircraft while Airbus forecasted 925 airframes. “When there are disruptions in trade and geopolitical tensions, shipping routes being blocked or detoured, air cargo is a nice way to circumvent those sort of constraints even though it's more expensive,” Stengel said. “I think that's part of Boeing’s argument on why air cargo could outpace overall trade and take share from other modes of shipping.” Airbus expects cargo demand to grow by around 3.2% annually between now and 2045. Cargo Facts Consulting In the m eantime, Cargo Facts Consulting also released its latest update to its freighter forecast at Cargo Facts Symposium last week . It said t he global freighter fleet will grow by 2.14% per year over the next twenty years to 3,876 units . These consist of: 1,125 large widebodies; 1,168 medium widebodies; 1,203 narrowbodies; and 371 feeders. Third quarter earnings reported this week Airbus Airbus' adjusted earnings before interest and taxes were 1.8 billion euros ($2 billion), down 9% year over year. It also reported: Third-quarter revenue of $19.5 billion, down 2% from Q3 2025; Commercial aircraft order book of 9,310 airframes for the first nine months of the year, up from 8,665 airframes a year ago; Delivery of 547 commercial aircraft through the end of Q3: sixty-eight A220s, 428 A320 family aircraft and fifty-one widebodies, including thirteen A330s and thirty-eight A350s; and Commercial aircraft net orders of 1,105 aircraft after cancellations through Q3, compared to 514 in Q3 2025. Boeing Boeing posted a third-quarter net loss of $116 million, compared to a loss of $5.3 billion a year ago. In addition, it reported: 161 delivered aircraft during the three-month period, up from 160 in Q3 2025. In the first nine months of the year, it delivered 475 aircraft; Total revenue of $24.2 billion, up 4% year over year; Commercial Airplanes revenue of $10.7 billion, 3% lower than last year; and Its orderbook across divisions stands at more than 6,300 aircraft. Editor’s note: All amounts have been converted to U.S. dollars. Cargo Facts LATAM 2027, the essential event for stakeholders in Latin America, will take place Feb. 10-12 at the Marquis Reforma in Mexico City. Learn more and register by Jan. 8 to take advantage of early-bird pricing.

Boeing lowers annual world cargo growth forecast slightly to 3.5%

Expects freighter fleet to grow 67% to more than 4,000 aircraft

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