E-commerce drives larger, increasingly modern fleet (global express fleet – Part I)

Today, we begin a four-part analysis of the worldwide express freighter fleet. Part I offers a look at the overall fleet of jet freighters used now by the integrated express operators, and how that fleet has changed over the years. Part II delves into the fleets of relative newcomers to the industry, such as Amazon , SF Airlines and YTO Cargo Airlines . Part III continues with a company-by-company overview of the three largest integrators, FedEx , UPS and DHL, while Part IV examines the ACMI operators that do much of the flying on behalf of the integrators. As of the beginning of October 2019, the combined fleet of jet freighter aircraft operated by or on behalf of the world’s major express companies stood at 1,122 aircraft, up 104 units, or 9.8%, from May 31, 2018 (See chart at right.) During the same period, a number of aircraft, both narrowbody and widebody freighters, were retired or transferred to other airlines. FedEx, which took delivery of more production freighters than any other carrier, also led retirements with ten MD-10-10Fs and a pair of A310-200Fs removed from service. Over the next year, the company intends to park or retire up to thirty-five MD-10-10F, A310-300F and MD11F aircraft by the end of its next fiscal year . In a change from recent years, the net number of narrowbody freighters added to the global express fleet has accelerated as a proportion of overall express fleet additions. Whereas widebody freighters have comprised the majority of net additions to the global express fleet for the past five years, this year has seen an uptick in narrowbody additions as well. The total number of widebody aircraft operated by or on behalf of major express companies increased by 64 aircraft over the past 16 months, compared to an increase of 41 narrowbody aircraft. Despite the uptick in the number of narrowbody freighters added to the express fleet, distribution remains virtually unchanged since June 2018 at 60.2% widebodies (compared to 60.1% previously) and 39.8% narrowbodies. Although a larger number of 737 Classics were put into express service compared to 737 NGs, the majority of 737 NG redeliveries to date are in service for or on behalf of express carriers. ASL Airlines and West Atlantic have put into service four and two 737-800BCFs, respectively, for FedEx in Europe. In North America, Southern Air is now operating three 737-800BCFs for Amazon, and in Asia, China Postal Airlines has taken redelivery of its first two -800BCFs. Amazon, China Postal Airlines, YTO Express and SF Express are all committed to additional NG narrowbody freighters, suggesting a healthy mix of fleet modernization for most carriers, and in the case of Amazon, net growth for the narrowbody express fleet. Consistent with previous years, FedEx and UPS continued to expand their respective widebody freighter fleets with the delivery of 767-300F, 777F and 747-8F production freighters. 767-300Fs represented nearly half of the growth during the 16-month period with a net addition of 45 units. An average of about one 777F per month was added to the express fleet with the number of 777Fs in service increasing by fifteen units. The 747-8F fleet also grew, albeit more slowly, with UPS adding eight units. Once again the 767-300 – both production and conversion variants – was popular with express carriers based in all regions. Since our last count, FedEx added twenty 767-300ERFs, 11 freighter-converted units went into service for Amazon, UPS added eight production freighters, DHL Express added three conversions, as did SF Express. As it stands now, there are more 767-300Fs in express service than any other widebody freighter. Among all jet freighters in service, only the 757-200F is more widely utilized than the 767-300F, with 299 units in service – about 26.6% of the overall express freighter fleet. With seventy-five production 767-300Fs on firm order, and a dozen or more 767-300F conversions expected each year over the next three years, the 767-300F could eventually supplant the 757-200F as the backbone of the express fleet. For now, however, the 757- 200F fleet continues to grow as DHL, SF Express, China Postal Airlines and YTO Cargo Airlines continue to add the fleet type. DHL has signaled that future growth in the medium widebody segment will not be limited to the 767-300F. Five factory-built A330-200Fs and an A330-300P2F entered the integrator’s fleet. DHL has five more A330- 300P2F conversions on firm order with EFW and options for ten more. The A330 integrator fleet is thus expected to grow in the coming years as feedstock and engines suitable for conversion become more widely available. Join us tomorrow for Part II, where we’ll provide an analysis of the growing fleets of relative newcomers to the industry, such as Amazon, SF Express and YTO Cargo Airlines.

E-commerce drives larger, increasingly modern fleet (global express fleet – Part I)

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