The narrowbody freighter fleet part II: 737 NG conversions enter the fleet

[caption id="attachment_251852" align="alignright" width="450"] Ethiopian Cargo, the launch operator for AEI's 737-800SF, took redelivery of the first of two aircraft on-lease from GECAS.[/caption] Today we continue our three-part analysis of the worldwide fleet of narrowbody jet freighters with a look at active and emerging conversion programs for the narrowbody freighter types currently available and set to enter the market in late 2019 and early 2020. In part III next week, we will break down the fleet on a type-by-type basis, with a focus on express, and then by regional distribution. If you missed it, check out part I for our look at the overall composition of the fleet – how many of the different types are in operation by which carriers As was the case last year, no production narrowbody jets are currently available as full freighters. However, the many passenger-to-freighter conversion programs in the space support a healthy influx of redeliveries into the market. We count fifteen active or soon-to-be-approved narrowbody conversion programs for eight aircraft types: the 757-200, 737-300, 737-400, 737-700, 737-800, A320, A321, and MD-80. For those readers comparing this number with 2018’s analysis, we count two fewer programs in 2019, as while its program is technically still active, Israel-based IAI/Bedek Aviation Group is unlikely to undertake additional conversions of 737 Classics, due to the decreasing availability of suitable feedstock. To consider other changes from 2018, as mentioned earlier, 737 NGs are moving to the forefront of the narrowbody freighter landscape. Boeing redelivered its 737-800BCF (now on-lease to West Atlantic) to launch customer GECAS, while Aeronautical Engineers, Inc., received its Supplemental Type Certificate (STC) for its 737-800SF. The first AEI-converted 737-800 was redelivered to launch customer GECAS and is now on lease with launch operator Ethiopian Airlines . Meanwhile, ATSG subsidiary PEMCO Conversions is awaiting Federal Aviation Administration approval of its own imminent STC for both its 737-700 full-freighter and flex-combi (FC) conversion programs. In February, Mike Andrews, Director of Cargo Conversions with PEMCO, told the crowd at Cargo Facts EMEA that approval was expected in March, but the program is apparently facing another delay, after the partial shutdown of the United States government late last year already held up approval of the program. Looking further ahead, 2020’s narrowbody fleet analysis should feature some exciting developments – specifically, the entrance of Airbus into the narrowbody jet freighter space. Two programs long in development for A321 P-to-F conversions are expected to receive certification – EFW’s program by the end of 2019 and 321 Precision Conversions’ (the JV between Precision Aircraft Solutions and ATSG) during 1Q 2020. EFW also expects certification for its A320 program in 2020. A third company, Washington-based Sine Draco, is also launching an A321 P-to-F conversion program, and last year selected Sierra Completions for the engineering design. However, Sine Drago has not yet announced a launch customer for its program. Once the new programs receive certification, redeliveries will only accelerate from their current pace. How quickly that will happen still depends on feedstock availability, however. The price point for 737 NGs may still give some operators pause – Cargo Facts Consulting estimates the on ramp cost of an NG at about US$15 million, compared to $9 million for a -400, including avionics upgrades. Meanwhile, the eventual outcome of investigations into two crashes of 737 MAX 8s could further tie up feedstock, as carriers hold onto their current passenger-configured 737s to accommodate delayed deliveries of MAX aircraft (For more on the impact of the 737 MAX grounding, see Cargo Facts' coverage here . The current and future composition of the narrowbody freighter fleet will be a major subject of interest at Cargo Facts Asia in Shanghai, 15-17 April. In addition to a session devoted specifically to narrowbody passenger-to-freighter conversions, we will also have a presentation from Cargo Facts Consulting’s Managing Director, Frederic Horst , on this year’s Twenty-Year Freighter Forecast. For more information about Cargo Facts Asia, or to register, go to CargoFactsAsia.com .

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