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2011 Cargo Demand: So far, so good.
Note: The following article is excerpted from the current issue of Cargo Facts Update. We encourage those of you who do not already subscribe to the weekly Update, and its companion the monthly printed Cargo Facts newsletter, to click here for more information.
2011 cargo: So far, so good. Traffic and volume statistics for January from some of the world’s big cargo carriers and handlers are beginning to surface and, as shown in the individual reports below, there is no sign of any fall-off in demand for air freight. The year-over-year increases are nowhere near the 25% gains reported in early 2010, but that is because the comparisons are now being made to months that featured healthy demand, so the gains shown below are actually quite strong. (We point out, however, that because the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday in Asia varies, it is always better to consider January and February together, rather than to look at either month in isolation.)
- LUFTHANSA CARGO reported January cargo traffic up 21.0% y-o-y. We note, however, that Lufthansa Cargo’s capacity was up 25.0% y-o-y in January, reflecting the return to service of several parked MD-11Fs, and the addition of four 777Fs to the AeroLogic fleet.
- AIR FRANCE-KLM reported January cargo traffic up 3.4%. Of the carrier’s two major trade lanes, traffic grew much faster on the trans-Atlantic (up 8.8%) than on the Europe/Asia route (up just 2.2%).
- INTERNATIONAL AIRLINES GROUP (the new name for the merged BRITISH AIRWAYS and IBERIA) reported combined cargo traffic up 5.8%. Taken separately, BA’s cargo traffic was up 2.6%, while Iberia’s cargo traffic jumped 17.9%.
- Chile-based LAN reported January cargo traffic up 12.6%. The carrier said this increase was mainly due to three factors: the growth of the import traffic to Latin America, particularly Brazil, the addition of two 767 freighters late in 2010, and the launch of domestic operations in Brazil through affiliate carrier ABSA.
- Hong Kong Air Cargo Terminals (Hactl, which handles about 80% of the cargo moving through Hong Kong International Airport) reported its January handle up 8.2% y-o-y to 230,000 tonnes. The biggest increase was in transshipment cargo, up 19.9% to 44,000 tonnes, while export volume rose 6.6% to 122,000 tonnes and import volume was up 4.1% to 63,000 tonnes.
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cargo traffic up ….yeah indeed…..and still and but ….
how about yields ???? how about revenues ???
What we’re hearing is that yields, while they’re not incredible, are still okay. But capacity is beginning to catch up with demand. In the past, this has always led to carriers pursuing volume at any cost. The next few months will show whether we fall into the same old bad habits or not. One interesting case is Air France, which has dumped capacity (and therefore lost market share) but has seen yields rise by almost 30% in the first nine months of its current fiscal year (i.e. through 31 December).
i think the numbers are diluted
we see yields from china going down dramatically since aug2010,
we see too much capacity in the far east market generally speaking
we see capacities being taken out from the far east routes back to some more promising destinations in latin america
generally speaking on the far east routes , eventhough affected by Chinese New Year, we see lower loadfactors and declining yields
i hope reasonable cargo carriers will follow the example, reduce capacities so that yiels go up again