Asia-Europe air cargo: Strongest link in 2025 global trade network

As 2025 progresses, the Asia - Europe corridor has emerged as the standout performer in global air cargo. The corridor continues to expand at a steady pace w hile trans -P acific and trans -A tlantic flows face headwinds from tariffs, trade measures and capacity shifts . Growth is being fueled by new routes, surging demand for pharmaceuticals and high-value technology products as well as shifting supply chains accelerated by geopolitical disruptions. Drawing on the latest trade, traffic and rate data, Cargo Facts Consulting examines the forces propelling Asia - Europe ahead of other major trade lanes, the commodities driving demand and the strategic hubs positioning themselves to capture future flows. Why Asia - Europe i s o utperforming

The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing reports that 19 air cargo routes were launched connecting China with Europe in the first two months of 2025 , bringing weekly round-trip flights to 162 as of April . IATA ’s July cargo-tonne-kilomet er data shows the Asia - Europe lane as the clear leader, with volumes up 13.5% year over year , marking the 29 th h consecutive month of expansion on this lane. According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), China’s exports to Europe are expected to grow by 6% for the remainder of 2025, driven by the redirection of trade flows away from the U nited States . In contrast, other lanes — such as Asia - North America and Europe - North America — show flatter or weaker growth. The Asia - North America corridor continues to be affected by U.S. trade measures targeting Chinese exports . As a result, flows on this route fell 4.7% YoY in June , and another 1 % in July, with July marking the third consecutive month of contraction. The North America - Europe corridor, the world’s third - busiest trade lane, delivered a moderate 9.6% YoY increase. On Asia - Europe routes, spot rates from Northeast Asia to Europe held steady at $4.16 per kg, according to Xeneta . A similar trend is emerging in ocean shipping: Global Trade magazine reported that in July , for the first time this year, it became more expensive to ship a 40-foot container from Asia to Northern Europe than to the U.S. West Coast. What’s m oving : Tech, p harma , luxury goods

Growth in t he Asia - Europe corridor is being driven by four primary segments: P harmaceuticals ; T echnology ; F ashion ; and L uxury goods. European pharmaceutical exports and imports were strong in 2024, with Eurostat ’s COMEXT database reporting a 13.5% increase, a trend projected to continue in 2025. High-value electronics — including computers, semiconductors and telecom equipment — are also boosting air cargo volumes as the global electronics cycle rebounds. Automotive manufacturers continue to ship EV components to maintain adequate regional stock levels, even amid a temporary slowdown in Europe’s domestic EV market. Fashion and luxury goods further support air cargo demand, as the seasonal nature and rapid obsolescence of apparel and accessories favor fast transport, particularly ahead of the fall retail season. Trade data reinforces the magnitude of this movement. In 2024, European air exports to Asia exceeded $23.9 billion , while imports reached just more than $2.4 billion . Figure 1: European Exports to/Imports from Asia (USD)

Source: C FC analysis of Eurostat COMEXT data

Measured by weight, exports were just less than 600 million pounds and imports were slightly below 30 million pounds . Figure 2: EU air e xports to Asia vs EU a ir imports from Asia (lbs)

Source : CFC analysis of Eurostat COMEXT data

Although export values per pound have remained relatively stable around $40 per pound , import values have declined sharply — from a peak of $333.20 per pound in 2020 to $79.94 per pound in 2024 — reflecting shifts in product composition and sourcing. Figure 3: E U air e xports to Asia vs EU air i mports from Asia (USD/lbs.)

Source : C FC analysis of Eurostat COMEXT data

These figures underscore the growing asymmetry between outbound and inbound cargo, highlighting Europe’s central role as a supplier of high-value goods to Asia. Geo p olitical i mpacts : Sea -air s ubstitution

Global trade expanded by an estimated $300 billion in the first half of 2025, according to UN Trade and Development , though growth has slowed to 1.5% in the first quarter and a projected 2% in Q2. Disruptions in the Red Sea have lengthened ocean transit times, prompting a diversion of urgent, high-value shipments to air cargo. Container shipping rates, reflected in Drewry’s World Container Index for the Asia - Europe lane, softened slightly in mid-August, but service reliability remains problematic. By comparison, the TAC Index and BAI data show modest firming in air freight rates, though without a dramatic spike. Despite security risks , including Houthi attacks on vessels , at least 14 car carriers transited the Red Sea and Suez Canal from Chinese ports to Europe last month, matching June’s levels, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence. Aviation has faced parallel challenges: Closure of Russian airspace continues to force carriers such as Finnair and Korean Air onto longer routes, while EASA issued a Conflict Zone Information Bulletin advising airlines to avoid airspace over Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan and Lebanon. These constraints reduced Middle East - Europe cargo flows by 3 percentage points month over month , while the Middle East - Asia market, previously showing strong momentum, contracted 8.4% in June. Hub w inners : Europe, Central Asia , Middle East

In July , European and Middle Eastern hubs continued to demonstrate strong cargo performance, with Frankfurt (FRA) stabilizing as a bellwether for Asia - Europe flows (up 3.7% YoY) and Liege (LGG) recording double-digit growth in Q2 (up 14.5% YoY) driven by integrators. Istanbul (IST) reinforced its role as Europe’s leading hub for connectivity, while Doha (DOH) posted modest growth (up 0.8% YoY) as Qatar Airways Cargo leveraged its Asia - Europe network. Within Europe, Amsterdam (AMS) , Madrid (MAD) and Debrecen (DEB) saw expanded connectivity from Asia, with AMS benefiting from new routes out of Shanghai (PVG) and other Chinese cities, and MAD gaining new service from Macau (MFM) . In Asia, hubs such as Incheon (ICN) , Singapore (SIN) and Tashkent (TAS) strengthened their positions . TAS , in particular , emerg ed as a strategic Central Asian transit point for China - Europe flows. Figure 4 – Alternate Routing connecting Amsterdam and Shanghai

Source : CFC analysis of Flightradar24 data

Notably, Uzbekistan-based My Freighter launched a scheduled service in August linking PVG and AMS via its hub in TAS with twice-weekly Boeing 767-300 freighter operations. This route offers a strategic alternative to congested transit points in Dubai (DWC) and Istanbul (IST) , while also providing distance advantages — 336 miles shorter than transiting through IST and 1,243 miles shorter than DWC . H owever , it should be noted that based on prevailing winds , a direct route between TAS and most of Europe would go over Russian airspace. Increased c apacity

Asia -Europe air cargo capacity is experiencing significant growth as multiple carriers expand their networks through new routes and partnerships. In April , Ethiopian Airlines inaugurated a twice-weekly Macau - Madrid service using a Boeing 777F, while MSC Air Cargo launched flights this year from Amsterdam to Seoul, operated by Atlas Air . Maersk Air Cargo has made the most substantial additions, introducing six weekly Boeing 767F flights between Billund, Denmark, and Zhengzhou, China, in addition to its existing daily Billund - Hangzhou service and a four-times-weekly Liege - Hangzhou charter operated by Magma Aviation with a 747-400F. Further expansion was seen at Maastricht Airport (MST) , where Atlas Air began operating an MSC-branded freighter to Xiamen (XMN) with a stop in Almaty, Kazakhstan (ALA) , later continuing to Mexico City (NLU) and Los Angeles (LAX) , with future flights planned to Hong Kong (HKG) . Together, these developments highlight intensifying competition and connectivity on the Europe - Asia trade lane. Outlook: Can m omentum h old?

The WTO has revised its 2025 global trade growth forecast upward to 0.9%, a notable shift from its earlier projection of a 0.2% decline. This adjustment follows a 2.9% increase in 2024, largely driven by importers front-loading shipments of goods, raw materials and components ahead of U.S. tariff s under President Donald Trump . Analysts note that this acceleration of shipments , particularly visible on Asia - Europe lanes , is providing a temporary boost to trade flows. While front-loading helps shippers secure inventory and avoid additional costs, Flexport cautions that the practice may dilute the traditional Q4 holiday peak. UNCTAD highlights that U.S. and EU import growth continues to support trade in the first half of 2025 but warns of potential softening in 2026. Going forward, outcomes hinge on two possible scenarios for 2026: S ustained momentum if new electronics launches keeping e-commerce demand strong ; or A slowdown if front-loading pulls demand forward , undermin ing the holiday season uplift. Underlying demand vs cyclical risks

The Asia - Europe trade lane is benefiting from a rare convergence of strong demand, new network capacity and geopolitical substitution effects that have redirected cargo flows away from traditional routes. Yet questions remain over the sustainability of this growth. Front-loading in response to tariffs, lingering disruptions in global shipping and evolving airspace restrictions may temper momentum heading into 2026. For now, Europe’s role as a critical gateway for high-value Asian exports remains secure, but the resilience of this corridor will ultimately depend on whether underlying demand — from e-commerce, technology and pharmaceuticals — can offset the cyclical risks .

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