Japanese air cargo: Little growth through 2019, but 2020 looks better

Like many other major markets around the world, Japanese air exports and imports declined in 2019. However, trade figures for the first three months of 2020 point only to a moderate decline in value terms.

Long-term market growth

Japanese air cargo volumes are primarily centered around three airports: Tokyo’s Narita and Haneda airports, and Osaka. Narita handles some 2.2 million tonnes, while Haneda handles 1.4 million, and Osaka handled 0.8 m tonnes in 2018. Airports such as Nagoya and Fukuoka are smaller, at somewhere between 220,000 and 270,000 tonnes per year. The main source of growth has been at Haneda Airport, which has grown volumes by about 60% in the past 10 years. For most of the past decade, Japanese air cargo growth was flat and never regained its pre-financial crisis levels. Figure 1 – Main Japanese Cargo Airports

Figure 2 shows an overview of Japanese air export and import value between 2015 and the end of 2019. After strong growth in 2017 and 2018, air exports declined by 7%, and imports by 3%. Figure 2 – Japanese Air Trade 2015 - 2019

The long-term trend for the Japanese air cargo market been characterized by a slow decline. Air cargo volumes at the end of 2019 were lower than that they were 20 years ago. Both imports (see Figures 3 and 4) were at about 90% of 2000 levels. Figure 3 – Japanese Air Import Tonnage 2002 – March 2020

Figure 4 – Japanese Air Export Tonnage 2000 – March 2020

However, the picture has been mixed across markets. For example, while exports to Europe and Americas, and even some key Asian countries, peaked in the mid-2000s, other markets have been doing well. This includes China, which now accounts for one-third of Japanese air exports to Asia, compared to only 8% in 2000. Mexico and Indonesia have also grown well, albeit off a small base.

2020 so far

A first look at air trade statistics released April 28 show flat exports and a 3% decline in imports for the first three months of 2020. For March, the decline in exports is 7% but imports grew by 1%. Provisional data for the first 10 days of April show overall air and sea trade declining by about 12%.

Predictably, imports of medical products showed strong growth in the first months of 2020, growing 7% in March and 9% for the first three months in value terms. In weight terms, there was a decline as the type of medical products shifted towards lighter weight PPE and other medical gear. Machinery is the most significant import commodity group, accounting for almost two-thirds of imports, declined -6% in the first three months but grew by 2% in March. Exports of machinery, on the other hand, declined by 16% in March but were flat for the whole period.

Data from the Japan Airforwarders Association (JAFA), however, point to larger declines. According to this, export tonnage decreased by 21% for the first three months of the year, and by 24% in March. The decline to Asian export destinations was less, only 11% for the first three months of 2020, and 13% in March. Imports declined by 6% for the first three months, and only by 3% for March.

Manufacturing purchasing manager indexes for Japan have not declined as much as in other countries, as noted in this article , dropping from about 48.8 in January to 43.7 in April. While both values indicate contraction, compared to the change in the U.S. (51.9 vs. 36.9) and the Euro Area (47.9 vs. 33.6). Given the importance of China for Japanese exports, the fact that China production is in positive territory should be good news for Japanese component exporters.

Japanese air cargo: Little growth through 2019, but 2020 looks better

CFC: Freighter fleet on the rise, despite COVID-19

Alaska Airlines to carry cargo in 737-900 cabins

Related Posts

Routes, risk and resilience: The transformation of global freight

June brings stability, not relief

May freighter capacity extends April’s higher operating level

Alaska Airlines to carry cargo in 737-900 cabins

Cargo Facts Free Newsletters

Cargo Facts Connect Podcast

Follow Us

Welcome Back!

Retrieve your password