Transatlantic belly capacity edging closer to 2019 levels as flights return

In a normal year, some 65% of westbound and 50% of eastbound transatlantic airfreight moves in the bellies of passenger aircraft. With passenger capacity essentially non existent on transatlantic lanes for most of 2020, freighters picked up some of the slack. While overall flown volumes were down approximately 20%, freighter traffic was up by almost a quarter, according to our analysis of traffic data. The belly share of traffic in 2020 was closer to 40% of westbound lanes and 29% on Eastbound lanes. The first six months of 2021 are similar, but with passenger flights returning this picture is likely to change. At the end of 2021, passenger capacity was back to 75% of 2019 levels and forward schedules point to a further recovery in 2022.

Last month the US Government announced that vaccinated travellers would be able to enter the US again after a 20-month hiatus. This news combined with an easing on the United Kingdom’s international travel restrictions brought in some optimism in the North Atlantic routes, which are key for Europe and US carriers. The announcement resulted in a surge of ticket sales especially from European travellers, highlighting once again the demand for leisure travel. Even though Q4 is a seasonal low for travel demand, airlines started increasing capacity on this segment which represents a significant share of global international passenger revenues. According to IATA, US carriers generated an average of 31% of their revenues in North Atlantic sector in 2019.

Some carriers have stated how its transatlantic bookings have reached nearly the 2019 levels after the US dropped restrictions last month and this has been reflected in the increased passenger capacity scheduled in 2022. The additional flights will allow for more cargo capacity in the belly hold of passenger airlines and this will help alleviate the lack of cargo capacity issue and it will likely soften air freight rates, which have been at high levels since the pandemic began.

CFC has analyzed the transatlantic cargo belly capacity market in detail. The interactive display contains four pages with a panel in each: Belly Capacity Historical Development Belly Capacity by Country Pair Belly Capacity by Aircraft Type Belly Capacity by Carrier

Data is current as of 21 December 2021 and includes all scheduled services through October 2022 and historical data for 2019, 2020 and 2021. All displays contain data for the North Atlantic market which includes continental Europe, the United States, Canada, Mexico, the Caribbean and Central America.

Some takeaways from our analysis: The Europe-US market passenger is recovering faster than other key global routes such as the Transpacific or Europe-Asia. European and US carriers keep adding capacity and opening new routes in this market, reaching the pre-pandemic levels of 2019. Forward schedules through the end of the summer show a matching level of belly payload capacity but they drop in September. Carriers are focusing on building up their winter and summer schedules, but we see a drop after August 2022, probably due to unconfirmed schedules beyond the end of summer. The United Kingdom – US segment accounts for 23% of scheduled passenger capacity in 2022, followed by Germany (11%), France (9%), Netherlands (6%), Spain and Turkey (each with 4%). Country pair shares have not changed dramatically but some such as the UK-US share was lower in 2021 (about 20%) due to tougher COVID travel restrictions in the UK. In 2020 and 2021, we observed a higher share of smaller widebody aircraft (787-8, A330-200/300) but we expect larger widebody aircraft to return and operate these routes (777-300, 777-200, A350-900,787-9. Carriers are using newer, more efficient aircraft in the transatlantic routes. Meanwhile, they have retired some of the older types (767-400s, A340-600s) so there is a higher share of A350-900s or 787-9s in this sector compared to 2019. These new aircraft have greater belly payload capacity, thus, increasing the available cargo capacity on flights. The top 10 carriers (UA, BA, AF, AA, DL, LH, AC, KL, TK, IB) account for 78% of all belly cargo capacity in the market. But some carriers are being more cautious than others when it comes to adding capacity. United Airlines cargo capacity will be at nearly 90% of its pre-pandemic levels while Air France or Lufthansa will be at about 75% of 2019 figures. The strong consumer demand in the North Atlantic is set to inch closer to pre-pandemic levels as US and European airlines deploy more flights to meet the rise in demand for transatlantic travel in 2022. This is very promising for air cargo which is already benefiting from the uptick in demand which can be met with more capacity during the holiday season. Even though international belly capacity across the world is far from 2019 levels and passenger travel still has a long journey ahead, the North Atlantic sector is recovering much faster than others. In our next analysis we will examine effects on the transpacific.

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