Trans-Pacific belly capacity recovery is underway but far from pre-pandemic levels

We started seeing an important recovery in 2021 as large aviation markets in North America and Europe reopened international travel following easing quarantine restrictions. However, the Asia-Pacific region saw little improvement in restoring international capacity as their governments were more cautious about opening borders. Vaccination rates in the region are lower and new variants have offset the small gains in domestic markets like Japan and Vietnam.

Hong Kong is an example of how the lack of international flights has impacted the local industry. Last month, Cathay Pacific suspended all long-haul freighter and passenger freighter flights for more than two weeks after Hong Kong extended the quarantine period for crews arriving from international destinations. This decision put more pressure on an airline that is already suffering heavily from the lack of international travel, and it also meant a significant loss of cargo space for shippers that are already facing limited cargo availability. With passenger capacity down by 90%, Cathay is one of the major combination carriers in Asia that has seen strong cargo demand but its passenger network has limited access to cargo.

Cargo Facts Consulting has analyzed the Trans-Pacific cargo belly capacity market in detail. The interactive display contains four pages with a panel in each: Belly Capacity Historical Development Belly Capacity by Country Pair Belly Capacity by Aircraft Type Belly Capacity by Carrier

Data is current as of January 21, 2022, and includes all scheduled services through October 2022 and historical data for 2019, 2020 and 2021. All displays contain data for the North Pacific segment which includes the United States, Canada, Mexico, Japan, China, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, India, Hong Kong, Vietnam and the Philippines.

Some takeaways from our analysis: The North America-Asia passenger market is recovering slowly and does not match the recovery rates observed in the Trans-Atlantic lane as Asian carriers are not able to add passenger capacity to key international hubs due to the strict government restrictions and lockdowns. Belly capacity in the region was recovering fast in the second quarter of 2021, but the delta variant slowed down this growth. The 2022 scheduled passenger capacity is moderate, resulting in a flat trend for belly capacity through the end of summer. Travel bubbles seem to offer a flexible bilateral solution but in practice, they have proven to be temporary while their long-term benefits are yet to be seen. The largest Trans-Pacific market is the U.S.-Japan segment, which accounts for about 25% of scheduled passenger capacity. It has seen an important recovery since the end of 2020, however, its belly capacity figures are still 50% below 2019 levels. United Airlines is still the largest provider of cargo capacity in this lane. In 2022, UA is expected to carry 18% of the total belly capacity, up from 14% in 2019. Other carriers such as Air Canada, JAL, ANA, Delta and American have grown their share while Singapore and Korean Air have remained flat. Most of the Chinese carriers have decreased their belly capacity share. United, Delta and American are seeing their Trans-Pacific belly capacity at 40% of pre-pandemic levels. This is much lower than the rates seen in the Trans-Atlantic market, with ranges between 85% and 90%. The aircraft choice over the Pacific is not extensive: The 777-300 and the 777-200 add up to 44% of the belly capacity in this market. The 787-9 and the A350-900 have increased their share in the last couple of years. The grounding of larger aircraft types such as the A380 and the 747-8 has led to greater use of smaller aircraft which have not contributed to an improvement in belly capacity. The global aviation recovery keeps showing significant regional variation, but the Asia-Pacific region still shows the weakest recovery performance because of the slow domestic and stagnant international traffic levels.

Trans-Pacific belly capacity recovery is underway but far from pre-pandemic levels

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