Narrowbody freighter fleet: 737 nears tipping point between -800Fs and -400Fs

The transition from older freighters to newer production and conversion types has gradually increased in recent years, along with a noticeable change in the industry: the slow pivot by operators from the traditional hub-and-spoke model to the point-to-point model. The role of narrowbody freighters in the hub-and-spoke system positioned the aircraft to provide service in the domestic medium-to-short-haul sectors within their respective regions. While the length of the routes will remain similar in distance, narrowbody freighters have begun lately to increase direct flight services between city points, rather than picking up payload from base hubs. FedEx emphasized the point-to-point model during its “Drive” initiative to cut costs across the company, while managing the decline in cargo volume globally. “By consolidating and densifying priority volume, while increasing our point-to-point connections using global partner capacity for one-way deferred volume, we expect to see around $250 million in structural financial benefit associated with these actions,” FedEx Express President and Chief Executive Richard W. Smith said in an investor briefing. Cargo Facts conducted its own research and analysis to assess 844 narrowbody freighters operated by 104 carriers or groups as of March 31, 2023, striving to provide as accurate a synopsis of the fleet as possible. Our definition of “narrowbody freighter” here does not include 707Fs, DC-8Fs or regional freighters like ATRs and CRJs; it does include Quick Change aircraft that are in freighter configuration, 737-700 FlexCombis, DC-9Fs and MD-80Fs. Compared with the previous year, the 6.6% year-over-year increase in the narrowbody segment was nearly double the 3.9% growth recorded at the end of March 2022. Redeliveries could have exceeded the reported totals had conversion orders not been affected by global inflation, logistical constraints and labor shortages, Cargo Facts believes. The table below shows all the narrowbody freighter aircraft in active operation as of March 31, 2023. We have consolidated the operator list by grouping together carriers that belong to, or are affiliates of, the same group. This includes DHL Express and its own carriers; the LUSAT group; and Northern Aviation Services, for example. To use this table, click on “Details” to view a breakdown of the models operated by each carrier or carrier group. The full table is also available here . 737-800 freighter growth pushes toward 150 The number of 737-800F conversions in 2022 speaks volumes when compared to the declining market narrative as the industry returned to full strength. Since April 2022, all three 737-800 freighter conversion programs have been actively completing conversions and placing more of the freighter type into service as Aeronautical Engineers Inc. (AEI) redelivered fifteen 737-800SFs, Israel Aerospace Industries converted three 737-800BDSFs and Boeing led the group with twenty-eight 737-800BCFs. The three programs have taken significant steps to generate a fluid pace of redeliveries by adding additional conversion sites and obtaining program approvals in different regions globally. With fifty-four more aircraft entering into service from March 2022 through March 2023, the total stood at 144 as of March 31. In an effort to streamline air cargo shipments directly to customers, various logistics companies in the emerging Latin American market have entered into lease agreements that enable them to operate narrowbody freighters for their own personal use. Brazil-based Modern Logistics became the latest logistics company in Latin America to commit to adding two 737-800BCFs to its fleet that will eventually replace 737-300Fs and -400Fs, while Latin American e-commerce giant Mercado Libre partnered with Brazilian carrier GOL to operate six 737-800BCFs to support the company’s growing demand. In Argentina, Mirgor finalized a service agreement with Aerolineas Argentinas in December 2022 to operate two 737-800SFs — the first AEI 737-800 conversions to enter the region — for the automotive, agricultural and electric components logistics company. Airbus narrowbody freighters double up With two certified programs ramping up output capacity, perhaps it is not too surprising that the total number of A321 freighters in service has more than doubled to eighteen compared to eight twelve months ago. Three new operators have emerged in the past year: SalamAir, IndiGo and Global Crossing Airlines, while SmartLynx continued to add to its fleet and at six units is the largest operator of A321Fs. The A321-200F has also made its debut in the Dominican Republic with Sky Cana reaching an ACMI deal with SmartLynx to move air freight for the carrier and its parent company, express logistics forwarder LogicPaq. The Airbus freighters add to two 737-800BCFs that Sky Cana is also wet leasing from Bluebird Nordic. Also of note is the appearance of the A320F: In July 2022, the world’s first A320-200P2F arrived in India to join new startup Pradhaan Air Express. The 2006-vintage aircraft remains the only A320 freighter flying in service but soon will be joined by another (2724) at the carrier. The year ahead will bring more Airbus narrowbodies to the freighter fleet. As Elbe Flugzeugwerke and 321 Precision Conversions work to lower their turnaround times for A321 conversions, the two companies are also further expanding their footprint with more lines in China. A new line for Precision at the Sichuan Aircraft Maintenance Engineering Co. Ltd. (SMECO) facility in Chengdu (CTU) has become operational and expects to complete touch labor on its first A321PCF by yearend. That aircraft (1926) will join Sichuan Airlines. Elbe Flugzeugwerke, meanwhile, plans to begin using a new line at the Sichuan Haite High-Tech MRO facility in Tianjin (TSN) in the third quarter to convert A321P2Fs. Classic freighter numbers begin slow descent More Classics have retired as the 737-800F has continued to drive narrowbody freighter growth, although not necessarily on a one-to-one basis. There were 158 737-400Fs and 105 -300Fs in service as of March 31, 2023, representing a year-over-year decline by three and fourteen aircraft, respectively. The rate of reduction for 737 Classic freighters appeared marginal, particularly when it came to the 737-400F. However, operators such as Africa Charter Airline, which added a fresh 737-300F conversion in September 2022, still see value in the smaller Classic’s role and performance. At 19% of the overall active fleet, 737-400Fs were the second most numerous type of narrowbody freighter in service at the end of March 2023. Even with Classics migrating out of primary markets and finding new homes elsewhere, it is clear that the market will pass the tipping point for 737-800Fs and -400Fs in the months ahead. 757-200Fs still account for the highest proportion of the global narrowbody fleet although dropping by 3 percentage points to 38%. This was despite an increase in the total number of 757 freighters in service by six to 324, partly because the 737-800F jumped to 17% from 7% twelve months ago. Precision Aircraft Solutions continues to convert 757s in line with demand from customers like SF Airlines, AerSale and BlackRock. Precision even opened a new conversion line at the Avex facility in New Iberia, La. (ARA) to handle what could be its final batch of 757-200PCFs. As the sun sets on 737 Classics and, to a lesser extent, 757s, the entry into service of their successors will push the relative proportions of 737-800Fs and A321Fs further upward, while more new entrants will likely join the list in the next twelve months with the help of the latest generation of narrowbody conversions. Don’t miss our two upcoming events that are essential for stakeholders in Asia and Latin America: Cargo Facts Asia , taking place April 17-19 in Singapore, and Cargo Facts LATAM , taking place May 15-17 in Panama City. Register today.

Narrowbody freighter fleet: 737 nears tipping point between -800Fs and -400Fs

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