The Green Race: SAF vs. Hydrogen

As the aviation industry continues to explore sustainable technologies, there is one thing to remember — there’s a deadline. IATA set a target of reaching net zero by 2050 — less than 30 years away. As pressure looms, the industry is feeling the time crunch. Can the task be accomplished? Is there a straight and narrow path to the goal? Or is the deadline premature? Standard-setting organizations such as International Civil Aviation Organization and IATA have lauded sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) as the most reliable way to meet the deadline. But pioneers in hydrogen development believe in its potential to transform the aviation world. Like many daunting feats, there are obstacles to each. But one thing is certain: Major airlines, airports and forwarders have accepted the challenge. The green race is on, no matter how steep the hill may be. SAF: Highs and lows To mitigate the industry’s carbon emissions, which account for about 3% of the world’s carbon emissions, SAFs are being globally produced using biofuels rather than fossil fuels . In other words, SAF feedstocks can be produced through waste products like used cooking oil, vegetable oil, unsalable animal fats, agricultural residues, algae and even human waste. SAF can reduce carbon emissions from flying by about 80% depending on the feedstock, according to IATA. Using SAF as a drop-in fuel, mixed with traditional jet kerosene, can produce these benefits with as little as 10% SAF in the blend. SAF does not require different or altered aircraft engines, a major benefit according to the World Economic Forum . 1st 100% SAF flight Virgin Atlantic became the first carrier to complete a trans-Atlantic flight using 100% SAF in November 2023, flying from London Heathrow Airport (LHR) to New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK). The flight sparked demand for SAF producers to scale feedstock, Joey Cathcart , a passenger on the 100% SAF flight and carbon-free team member at the Rocky Mountain Institute, previously told Air Cargo Next . [caption id="attachment_57139307" align="alignright" width="396"] A Virgin Atlantic Boeing 787 is fueled with sustainable aviation fuel. It's flight marked the first transatlantic commercial flight to be completed with 100% SAF. (Courtesy/Virgin Atlantic)[/caption] “I think [we’re] advancing the supply side [of SAF] and working to get projects that are currently being proposed to get to a final investment decision to increase the production volumes that are generally limited in the industry,” Cathcart said in November. “Flights, like the Virgin Atlantic one, operating on 100% sustainable aviation fuel, are really sending a very strong demand signal.” Government support for SAF Since 2008, SAF development has hit milestones, including government-backed initiatives and mandates charging airlines and airports to use SAF blends. The European Union has mandated a 6% SAF blend for all airlines and airports by 2030. The United Kingdom has proposed requiring the use of a 10% SAF-blend mandate by 2030. The proposal is to go before Parliament in January. In 2022, the United States enacted the SAF Grand Challenge roadmap, which requires production of 3 billion gallons of SAF annually by 2030, reducing carbon emissions from aviation by 50%. In April, the SAF Coalition was formed by 40 signatories, including major airlines, airports and energy companies in the U.S. and Canada, to advocate for SAF production in the U.S. [caption id="attachment_57143115" align="aligncenter" width="845"] (Courtesy/IATA)[/caption] The coalition “is important to us to advance this aspect of commercial aviation and to ensure airports’ perspective on SAF issues are represented,” Seth Cutter , vice president of public affairs at Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport (CVG), told Air Cargo Next . “Advocating for supportive state and federal policy for SAF’s adoption, scaling up and use is vital, and the SAF Coalition aims to do that. To meet the goals of the U.S. SAF Grand Challenge, we need stakeholders to come together to develop innovative solutions to meet our long-term goals.” Production In theory, these initiatives are steps forward, closing in on a lofty SAF target. Yet the challenges are significant. While SAF production doubled in 2023 to 600 million liters, that is less than 1% of the world’s need. To meet net-zero targets with SAF alone, 450 billion liters will be needed by 2050, Glyn Hughes , director general at TIACA , previously told Air Cargo Next . [caption id="attachment_57136734" align="alignleft" width="357"] (Courtesy/Bloomberg)[/caption] Also, SAF is two to three times the cost of traditional jet fuel, which was $2.49 per gallon last month . Because SAF feedstocks are scarce, the price won’t be competitive with jet fuel anytime soon, according to the World Economic Forum . “ No single sustainable feedstock will answer every need; the industry will need to tap into a range of options, ” a 2023 World Economic Forum report stated. “ Environmental integrity is key to selecting suitable feedstock. Additionally, SAF must not threaten food security or spur indirect land-use changes. ” Evolving SAF technology SAF producers have since invested in power-to-liquid SAF, or eSAF, to mitigate feedstock struggles. Power-to-liquid SAF is created by using wind and solar power to synthetically create liquid hydrocarbons. This technology has recently been explored by Airbus and IAG Cargo. U.K.-based SAF producer Firefly Green Fuels has also explored using human waste , or biosolids, to solve the SAF feedstock challenge. [caption id="attachment_57142803" align="alignright" width="387"] (Courtesy/Firefly Green Fuels)[/caption] The company is building the first commercial-scale facility in Harwich, Essex, to produce 43,000 tonnes of SAF annually made from human waste. It will be completed within five years, according to the company. “ The main challenge for all SAF producers right now is cost and availability of feedstock,” Callum Stewart , marketing and communications executive at Firefly Green Fuels, told Air Cargo Next . “Our process bucks this trend by utilizing a low-value and abundant source of carbon. We believe that our process is scalable around the world, and we’ve had a huge amount of international interest already from potential future partners that see the benefits. It’s important to note that we won’t solve this issue on our own. “The net-zero 2050 targets are very ambitious and will require all SAF pathways to be fully operational,” he said. Hydrogen: A growing bond With SAF roadblocks in clear view, some industry leaders have looked to hydrogen as a solution to aviation emissions. Hydrogen is the most abundant element on the planet with about 2½ times more energy than kerosene when in liquid form, according to IATA. There are numerous sources for hydrocarbon molecules such as methane or pure carbon, and there are many ways to produce enough electricity to separate water into hydrogen and oxygen, according to IATA. [caption id="attachment_57143116" align="aligncenter" width="513"] (Courtesy/IATA)[/caption] Hydrogen power has garnered attention in recent years as it could solve both feedstock and cost challenges that come with SAF production. Hydrogen power, which only makes water as a byproduct, has been tested in rockets dating back to 1945, according to NASA . However, the use of hydrogen as a power source is in its infancy, Richard “Pat” Anderson , professor of aerospace engineering and director of the Eagle Flight Research Center at Embry‑Riddle Aeronautical University , previously told Air Cargo Next . “There’s two ways of using hydrogen on an airplane,” he said. “You can actually burn it in an engine, similar to the way they do it with regular gas, or you can run it through a fuel cell and make electricity and run on the electric motor. … Regardless, you need lots of hydrogen.” While hydrogen works well in electric vehicles, the technology to use it as fuel for commercial-sized aircraft does not exist, Anderson said. Current infrastructure does not support hydrogen as a fuel, he added. Hydrogen is also expensive — currently three times the cost of jet fuel, according to IATA. “Liquid hydrogen fuel has a lower volumetric density than kerosene,” according to IATA’s 2023 hydrogen fact sheet. “It is estimated that to complete a given mission, despite the aircraft requiring a lower mass of fuel, the space that this fuel would occupy would be around [four] times larger than that of kerosene. This presents a challenge for airframe designers and would require significant redesign of conventional airframes.” While hydrogen-powered commercial aircraft may be in the distant future, there are companies investing in hydrogen technologies for vehicles and regional aircraft. Hydrogen investments The U.S. Department of Energy has invested $250,000 into powering airside vehicles with hydrogen fuel cells since 2019. Additionally: IAG Cargo in April invested in hydrotreated vegetable oil fuel for its fleet of 160 trucks at LHR; DHL in February invested $20 million in electric vehicles at its U.K. hub; Japan invested $205 million in electric aircraft systems in October 2023; and Aircraft designer and startup Novadev designed a carbon-free freighter powered by hydrogen fuel, though a prototype is 10 to 12 years away and the developer is looking for investors. While the investments are significant, industry leaders are relying on SAF to meet the net-zero deadline until more hydrogen research is completed on commercial aircraft. [caption id="attachment_57143117" align="aligncenter" width="469"] (Courtesy/IATA)[/caption] “The first hydrogen aircraft are expected for small and medium-sized and short- to mid-range aircraft from 2035 on,” DHL spokesperson Pamela Duque told Air Cargo Next . “It is still unclear to which extent any of the planned developments factor in freighter versions. We are monitoring the developments closely and are open to looking into the suitability of hydrogen aircraft for our operations when they become available. “However, due to the larger contribution of long-haul widebody aircraft to our carbon footprint and the slow turnover of aviation fleets, we do not anticipate any contribution of hydrogen aircraft to our 2030 emission target and cannot currently foresee a significant contribution to our 2050 target,” she said. “Our short- to mid-term focus in sustainable aviation is on maximizing the efficiency of our fleet and the use of sustainable aviation fuels.” Air Cargo Next has launched a business directory listing cargo carriers, service providers and technology companies. Each category has sub-categories, allowing users to find the right business to meet their needs. Users can also add their businesses to the directory and claim existing entries. Visit the Air Cargo Next Directory here.

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