With today’s 777X rollout, when will 777 P-to-F programs arrive?

[caption id="attachment_336061" align="alignright" width="450"] The first 777X debuted at the 13 March employee event at Boeing's Everett Assembly Plant. Photo: Boeing[/caption] Boeing discretely unveiled the first 777X earlier today at the company’s Everett, W ashington, assembly plant. What would have normally been presented as a global media spectacle aimed at capturing the world’s attention was instead a small event limited mostly to employees and non-media guests. Earlier this week, following the loss of Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302, the company decided to postpone the “external debut” that was originally scheduled for today. Despite rescheduling the launch party for the 777X, Boeing confirmed there have been no changes to the plane’s progress, and that the program remains on schedule. From what Cargo Facts has gleaned from photos of today’s internal rollout, Boeing’s next-generation widebody aircraft is nearing completion. Once deliveries begin, Boeing’s 777 assembly line will produce both the current generation 777 and the 777X for at least a few years. In the near-term, carrier choices for widebody freighters will remain limited to what’s currently available today. F u rther out into the future, however, the 777 platform is expected to offer the air cargo market some fresh options – either a passenger-to-freighter conversion program for existing 777s, or a freighter variant of the 777X. As of March 2019, Boeing’s order backlog for the 777F stood at fifty-five units. In 2018, the company took a record forty-five orders for and delivered fourteen of the freighter variant . It’s unclear how long it will take for Boeing to fulfill existing orders for the 777. During Boeing’s 4Q18 earnings call, company CEO Dennis Muilenburg expressed flexibility in the production rate of the 777. At present, the rate stands at about 3.5 aircraft per month, which Muilenburg expects to increase “slightly” into 2020, “as we continue to assess 777 demand as well as 777X timing.” When it comes to 777 conversions, beyond the simple question of “if” a program will be launched, is the issue of which variant – either the -200ER or the -300ER – makes the best candidate for conversion. Appraisers at last year’s Cargo Facts Symposium said conversions of the -200ER would offer the best value proposition, and nearly sixty of the type are already in storage, leaving plenty of possible aircraft available as conversion feedstock. However, most discussions surrounding possible conversions are focused on the 777-300ER, due to its larger size offering more conversion value in the long-run. IAI- Bedek and Boeing are both evaluating the viability of conversion programs, but while the popularity of the 777 production freighter has continued to grow, conversion houses have yet to make a decision on the program, as feedstock prices have so far not fallen sufficiently to justify conversions over production freighter orders. Also at last year’s Cargo Facts Symposium, Rafi Matalon , Vice President, Marketing, IAI Bedek Aviation Group, estimated a program for either type is still at least four to six years out, while Boeing’s Darren Hulst, Managing Director, Market Analysis & Sales Support, told Cargo Facts earlier this year that the company is “still exploring the market demand, but [hasn’t] made any decision on a conversion program for the 777-300ER. ” Returning to the 777X, Boeing expects to commence flight testing this year, with the first delivery expected in 2020. Those interested in learning more about widebody freighters and the forecasted growth of the global freighter fleet in the coming years are invited to join us at Cargo Facts Asia 2019, to be held 15-17 at the Langham Shanghai. For more information, or to register, visit www.cargofactsasia.com .

With today’s 777X rollout, when will 777 P-to-F programs arrive?

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