Based on recent order activity and conversion slot availability, Cargo Facts Consulting expects to see continued above-average narrowbody and medium widebody passenger-freighter conversion activity in 2021 and 2022.
At this stage, approximately sixty narrowbody freighter conversions and thirty medium widebody conversions appear likely for 2021, and the same is expected for 2022. Most narrowbody conversions in 2021 will focus on the 737-800, while most medium widebody conversions will center around the 767-300. Part of that is driven by supply, as in the case of the A321, and part is driven by demand, as in the case of the A330. For the 737NG and 767 conversion programs, slots are tight despite extra line capacity added in 2020.
But is this space too hot, or not? Will underlying market demand for freighters fall off a cliff in a year or two as we come out of the pandemic and more passenger capacity returns to the market? And in the long-term, is there too much supply chasing too little demand?
These key questions related to the passenger-freighter conversion market are explored at length as part of a full analysis available to CFC Insights subscribers.