Not a November to remember

After phenomenal growth for airfreight demand in November 2017, followed by more tempered increases in 2018, November 2019 is not shaping up to be a month to remember. Among the carriers reporting November 2019 traffic, most operators reported modest declines. This trend was not unanimous – in each of the three regions we cover, at least one carrier saw year-over-year traffic growth in November, including China Southern Airlines, Turkish Airlines and LATAM. As can be seen in the chart at right, and in the details below, demand growth in November appears slightly higher compared to October 2019 . We will have to wait until WorldACD and IATA report their conclusions in early January, but modest declines in the range of 2.5-3.5% are expected. Turning to the results on a carrier-by-carrier basis: Asia-Pacific Cathay Pacific Group reported November traffic down 5.8% year-over-year to 1.0 billion FTKs, a figure that month-to-month was flat. Year-to-date, Cathay’s traffic is 6.8% lower compared to the first eleven months of 2018, at 10.3 billion FTKs. Commenting on the cargo performance, Ronald Lam, chief customer and commercial officer, said, “both load factor and yield further improved against the previous month in November, which is traditionally a peak month of the year. Exports from mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan remained robust. As demand from traditional retail and new product releases tailed off towards the latter half of the month, strong e-commerce traffic surged around the Singles’ Day shopping holiday in mainland China as well as Black Friday, to which we successfully catered with additional charter requests to Southeast Asia. Looking ahead, Cathay Pacific remains “cautiously optimistic about 2020,” though it expects a weak first half. To help boost Hong Kong’s competitiveness during that time, Cathay plans to introduce a new terminal charge concession from April of next year. Singapore Airlines reported November cargo traffic down 7.2% y-o-y to 604 million FTKs – a slight increase month-to-month and an improvement from November, which registered 570 million FTKs. Capacity was cut by 1.5%, but this did not prevent a drop in load factors. Every region registered declines in load factors, except the Americas. Year-to-date, cargo traffic is down 7.0% to 6.5 billion FTKs. Air China Cargo’s traffic for November dropped 4.0% y-o-y to 402 million FTKs. Overall tonnage decreased 1.2% to about 126,000 tonnes. Year-to-date, traffic remains 3.9% lower, at 4.4 billion FTKs. China Southern ’s November cargo traffic jumped 8% to 699 million FTKs on stronger international traffic in November. Year-to-date through November, traffic is nearly flat at 6.9 billion FTKs. EVA Air’s cargo traffic, measured in FTKs, slid 1.7% year-over-year for the month of November to 295 million FTKs – the carrier’s third busiest month of the year since August and October. Year-to-date through November, EVA’s cargo traffic is down 7.0 % year-over-year. Yields are down 9.9% y-o-y but are up month-to-month. Europe & Middle East Lufthansa Group reported a decline of 1.8% y-o-y in its November traffic to 937 million FTKs. The carrier saw weaker demand in its Americas region, which saw declines of 2.4% y-o-y. Year-to-date, Lufthansa saw a 2.0% decline in its overall traffic to 9.8 billion FTKs. Air France-KLM’s November cargo traffic declined by 3.4% y-o-y to 739 million FTKs. Air France saw a decline in traffic of 5.1% y-o-y to 328 million FTKs, while KLM reported a modest 2.0% decline to 411 million FTKs. For the first eleven months of the year, the group’s total cargo activity was down 2.0% y-o-y to 7.7 billion FTKs. International Airlines Group reported that group traffic dropped 5.3% y-o-y in November to 482 million FTKs. Although Iberia accounts for a relatively small share of IAG’s overall cargo traffic, the carrier saw year-over-year growth of 4.9% in November. This was offset by a decline at British Airways, which reported November cargo traffic down 7.8% to 356 million FTKs. Year-to-date, IAG’s cargo traffic declined 1.9% to 5.1 billion FTKs, compared to the same period the year prior. Turkish Cargo reported a 10.3% y-o-y increase in cargo tonnage carried, to just over 144,000 tonnes. For the first 11 months of 2019, cargo volumes are up 9.3% y-o-y to more than 1.4 million tonnes. Americas Delta Cargo reported November cargo traffic down 4.1% y-o-y for the month, to about 231 million FTKs. Year-to-date, Delta’s cargo traffic is down by 8.5%. LATAM Cargo reported November traffic up 2.9% year-over-year to 321 million FTKs. Year-to-date, FTKs remain slightly behind 2018 (down 1.4%) to 3.3 billion FTKs. Join us Feb. 3-5 for Cargo Facts EMEA 2020, the event serving as an international platform providing attendees with a direct connection to leading EMEA innovation executives. To register and for more information about the event, visit www.cargofactsemea.com .

Not a November to remember

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