Cargo Facts

No products in the cart.

SUBSCRIBE
  • NEWS
  • DATA & FLEETS
  • MAGAZINE
    • Latest Issue
    • Features
    • Top News
    • Freighter Aircraft Transactions
    • Shorts
    • View From The Cockpit
    • Parting Shot
    • Issue Archive
  • PODCAST
  • EVENTS
  • CONSULTING
Wednesday, February 1, 2023
Log In
No Result
View All Result
  • Leasing
  • Capacity & Demand
  • Carriers
  • Drones
  • Engines
  • Express
  • Conversions
Cargo Facts
  • NEWS
  • DATA & FLEETS
  • MAGAZINE
    • Latest Issue
    • Features
    • Top News
    • Freighter Aircraft Transactions
    • Shorts
    • View From The Cockpit
    • Parting Shot
    • Issue Archive
  • PODCAST
  • EVENTS
  • CONSULTING
Log In
No Result
View All Result
Cargo Facts
No Result
View All Result

Forecasting Air Freight Demand

Charles Kauffman by Charles Kauffman
March 30, 2018
in Capacity & Demand, News Archives
0
Share on FacebookShare on LinkedIn
Alan Hedge joined ACMG in 2006 as a Senior Analyst, and now serves as its Senior Director. Mr. Hedge has more than 20 years of experience in the airline industry in a variety of financial and consulting roles from fleet analysis to international regulatory and competition analysis. He started his aviation career in 1989 at American Airlines. He left in 1999 to become Research Director at The Campbell-Hill Aviation Group in the Washington, DC area. He holds a BS in Electrical Engineering from Stanford University and an MBA from the University of North Carolina.

In 2017, IATA reported global air cargo demand up 9% – the highest growth since 2010, and the third highest since 2000. That growth was about twice the rate of last year’s global trade growth, and nearly three times the rate of growth of global GDP, leaving many wondering where growth is headed moving forward. Below, Alan Hedge, Senior Director at our sister company ACMG, shares his views on forecasting air freight demand…

As the recently deceased Stephen Hawking said, “The future is indefinite and exists only as a spectrum of possibilities.” After predicting baseline annual growth of 4.9%, IATA’s five-year forecast of 2018-2022 air freight demand, published on 13 March, concludes with an acknowledgement of future uncertainty by presenting two sensitivities around its baseline growth assumption.

IATA’s forecast rests on three pillars: GDP growth rate, the relationship between goods trade and GDP, and the relationship of air freight demand to goods trade. Unfortunately, rather than these pillars forming the three legs of a stool, they are stacked end-to-end, subjecting the forecast to the risk of the failure of any single assumption. Consequently, IATA has developed two (widely divergent) sensitivities, a high-growth scenario assuming five-year annual compound growth of 9.5%, almost double that of the baseline, and a low-growth scenario of 3.4%, in line with historical growth over the last five years.

Although IATA believes that the multiplier between GDP and goods trade will continue to revert from its average of roughly 1.0 during the post-global financial crisis period back to the prior decades’ 2.0 multiplier, only in the high-growth case does the multiplier actually reach 2.0. IATA also suggests that the relationship between air freight demand and growth of goods trade will continue to de-couple.

ACMG’s annual 2018-2027 Twenty-Year Freighter Forecast also relies on a forecast of underlying demand for air freight, but we are not economists, so we look at a wide variety of sources (including IATA) when developing our independent forecast of the development of the world freighter aircraft fleet.

Although we find IATA’s chain of reasoning to be somewhat persuasive, we are concerned that it buttresses its assumptions for the sustainability of air cargo growth at rates higher those of the last five years by citing growing demand from “e-commerce and pharmaceuticals.” ACMG agrees that both of these categories are of growing importance to air freight, but, we feel it is premature rely too heavily on them to support air freight demand growth in the face of economic pressures, such as rising interest rates, trade protectionism, and international conflict.

Therefore, we at ACMG are taking a conservative approach of using the same baseline twenty-year compound annual growth in air freight demand of 4.0% that we used in 2017. We also provide growth sensitivities of 3.0% and 5.0%, as well as the consequences of changes to freighter productivity and changes to the ratio of air freight carried on freighters vs. in passenger bellies.

Hopefully, last year’s stellar growth rate, although decelerating, will support a robust 2018. If so, ACMG will certainly consider raising our twenty-year average annual compound growth rate in our 2019 freighter forecast.

ACMG’s 2018-2037 Twenty-Year Freighter Forecast will be released at Cargo Facts Asia 2018 in Shanghai 23-25 April. Come join us to hear the latest forecast and its impact on the world freighter fleet.

Tags: air cargo demandAircraft FleetIATA
Previous Post

Air freight rates continue to rise

Next Post

空中客车的全新货机?

Related Posts

Intra-East Asia air cargo traffic to lead growth over next 20 years
Capacity & Demand

Intra-East Asia air cargo traffic to lead growth over next 20 years

November 9, 2022
LATAM Cargo Chief Executive Officer Andres Bianchi, Mas Chief Executive Officer Luis Sierra and Atlas Air Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer Michael Steen. (Photo/Cargo Facts)
Capacity & Demand

Freighter operators confident in recovery despite short-term concerns

October 21, 2022
CFC: Freighter order backlog raises bubble questions
Capacity & Demand

CFC: Freighter order backlog raises bubble questions

July 8, 2022
Next Post
Airbus will deliver the first A330-900neo to launch customer TAP Portugal this summer. That airplane will carry passengers, but a freighter variant may follow.

空中客车的全新货机?

STAY INFORMED WITH OUR NEWS ALERTS

CARGO FACTS CONSULTING

E-commerce activity slowing down; how will this impact air logistics?

E-commerce activity slowing down; how will this impact air logistics?

September 28, 2022
Freighter outlook: Manufacturers revise forecasts on market strength

Freighter outlook: Manufacturers revise forecasts on market strength

August 25, 2022
  • About Us
  • Contact Us
  • Privacy Terms
  • ADA Compliance
  • Advertise

 Manage Cookie Consent

Follow Us

twitter linkedin podcast
© 2023 Royal Media
No Result
View All Result
  • News
    • All News
    • Aircraft Leasing
    • Capacity & Demand
    • Carriers
    • E-Commerce
    • Engines
    • Express
    • Freighter Aircraft
    • Freighter Conversions
  • Data & Fleets
  • Magazine
    • Latest Issue
    • Features
    • Top News
    • Freighter Aircraft Transactions
    • Shorts
    • View From The Cockpit
    • Parting Shot
    • Issue Archive
  • Podcast
  • Events
  • Consulting
  • Subscribe
  • Log In / Account

© 2022 Royal Media & Cargo Facts

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password?

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
Powered By MemberPress WooCommerce Plus Integration
THIS WEBSITE USES COOKIES

We use cookies on our website to give you the most relevant experience by remembering your preferences and repeat visits. By clicking “I CONSENT”, you consent to the use of ALL the cookies.

Cookie settingsI CONSENT

Review our Cookie Policies
.
Manage Cookie Consent

Privacy Overview

This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Out of these cookies, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. But opting out of some of these cookies may have an effect on your browsing experience.
Necessary
Always Enabled
Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. These cookies ensure basic functionalities and security features of the website, anonymously.
CookieDurationDescription
34f6831605sessionGeneral purpose platform session cookie, used by sites written in JSP. Usually used to maintain an anonymous user session by the server.
a64cedc0bfsessionGeneral purpose platform session cookie, used by sites written in JSP. Usually used to maintain an anonymous user session by the server.
AWSALBCORS7 daysThis cookie is managed by Amazon Web Services and is used for load balancing.
cookielawinfo-checkbox-advertisement1 yearSet by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin, this cookie is used to record the user consent for the cookies in the "Advertisement" category .
cookielawinfo-checkbox-analytics11 monthsThis cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Analytics".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-functional11 monthsThe cookie is set by GDPR cookie consent to record the user consent for the cookies in the category "Functional".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-necessary11 monthsThis cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookies is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Necessary".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-others11 monthsThis cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Other.
cookielawinfo-checkbox-performance11 monthsThis cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Performance".
crmcsrsessionGeneral purpose platform session cookie, used by sites written in JSP. Usually used to maintain an anonymous user session by the server.
JSESSIONIDsessionThe JSESSIONID cookie is used by New Relic to store a session identifier so that New Relic can monitor session counts for an application.
LS_CSRF_TOKENsessionCloudflare sets this cookie to track users’ activities across multiple websites. It expires once the browser is closed.
PHPSESSIDsessionThis cookie is native to PHP applications. The cookie is used to store and identify a users' unique session ID for the purpose of managing user session on the website. The cookie is a session cookies and is deleted when all the browser windows are closed.
viewed_cookie_policy11 monthsThe cookie is set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin and is used to store whether or not user has consented to the use of cookies. It does not store any personal data.
Functional
Functional cookies help to perform certain functionalities like sharing the content of the website on social media platforms, collect feedbacks, and other third-party features.
CookieDurationDescription
_zcsr_tmpsessionZoho sets this cookie for the login function on the website.
663a60c55dsessionThis cookie is related to Zoho (Customer Service) Chatbox
bcookie2 yearsLinkedIn sets this cookie from LinkedIn share buttons and ad tags to recognize browser ID.
bscookie2 yearsLinkedIn sets this cookie to store performed actions on the website.
cbCookieAcceptedsessionThis cookie is used by Caspio (FAT Database) has not yet been given a description. Our team is working to provide more information.
cbParamListsessionThis cookie is used by Caspio (FAT Database) has not yet been given a description. Our team is working to provide more information.
e188bc05fesessionThis cookie is set in relation to Zoho Campaigns
iamcsrsessionZoho (Customer Support) sets this cookie and is used for tracking visitors (for performance purposes)
langsessionLinkedIn sets this cookie to remember a user's language setting.
li_gc2 yearsLinkedIn uses to store consent of guests regarding the use of cookies for non-essential purposes
lidc1 dayLinkedIn sets the lidc cookie to facilitate data center selection.
Performance
Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better user experience for the visitors.
CookieDurationDescription
AWSALB7 daysAWSALB is an application load balancer cookie set by Amazon Web Services to map the session to the target.
Analytics
Analytical cookies are used to understand how visitors interact with the website. These cookies help provide information on metrics the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc.
CookieDurationDescription
_ga2 yearsThe _ga cookie, installed by Google Analytics, calculates visitor, session and campaign data and also keeps track of site usage for the site's analytics report. The cookie stores information anonymously and assigns a randomly generated number to recognize unique visitors.
_gid1 dayInstalled by Google Analytics, _gid cookie stores information on how visitors use a website, while also creating an analytics report of the website's performance. Some of the data that are collected include the number of visitors, their source, and the pages they visit anonymously.
CONSENT2 yearsYouTube sets this cookie via embedded youtube-videos and registers anonymous statistical data.
vuid1 yearVimeo installs this cookie to collect tracking information by setting a unique ID to embed videos to the website.
Advertisement
Advertisement cookies are used to provide visitors with relevant ads and marketing campaigns. These cookies track visitors across websites and collect information to provide customized ads.
CookieDurationDescription
__Host-GAPS2 yearsThis cookie allows the website to identify a user and provide enhanced functionality and personalisation.
_dc_gtm_UA-1038974-71 minuteUsed to help identify the visitors by either age, gender, or interests by DoubleClick - Google Tag Manager.
_fbp3 monthsThis cookie is set by Facebook to display advertisements when either on Facebook or on a digital platform powered by Facebook advertising, after visiting the website.
fr3 monthsFacebook sets this cookie to show relevant advertisements to users by tracking user behaviour across the web, on sites that have Facebook pixel or Facebook social plugin.
VISITOR_INFO1_LIVE5 months 27 daysA cookie set by YouTube to measure bandwidth that determines whether the user gets the new or old player interface.
YSCsessionYSC cookie is set by Youtube and is used to track the views of embedded videos on Youtube pages.
yt-remote-connected-devicesneverYouTube sets this cookie to store the video preferences of the user using embedded YouTube video.
yt-remote-device-idneverYouTube sets this cookie to store the video preferences of the user using embedded YouTube video.
yt.innertube::nextIdneverThis cookie, set by YouTube, registers a unique ID to store data on what videos from YouTube the user has seen.
yt.innertube::requestsneverThis cookie, set by YouTube, registers a unique ID to store data on what videos from YouTube the user has seen.
Others
Other uncategorized cookies are those that are being analyzed and have not been classified into a category as yet.
CookieDurationDescription
xn_uuid1 monthThis cookie is set by NING during sign-in, and serves as your identity on the network, and indicates that you are signed in.
Save & Accept
Powered by CookieYes Logo