Freighter fleet growth pushes Atlas, Qatar and Turkish higher in 2018 traffic rankings

Yesterday, part I of our two-part analysis of the world's top 50 cargo carriers in 2018 revealed three carriers, Atlas Air Group , Qatar Airways and Turkish Cargo , that had made notable increases in rank among the top 50. For each of the three carriers, a growing freighter fleet led to higher traffic. Today, we take a closer look at the relationship between traffic growth (or decline) and developments in the freighter fleet. The chart at right shows the jet freighter operators out of the Top 50, ranked by year-over-year growth between 2017 and 2018, along with how the fleet has changed. Of the thirty-three carriers or groups in the Top 50 that operate freighters, nineteen reported positive traffic growth of at least 1% (see part I here for an overview of the Top 50 carriers). Within this set, six added freighters without removing any, three added and withdrew freighters, and ten did not make any changes to their freighter fleet. Looking now at some of the fastest-growing carriers on an operator-by-operator basis in 2018, once a few outliers are accounted for, the link between fleet growth and traffic growth becomes more apparent. DHL surfaces at the top of the list, and although the express giant did add aircraft to its own AOCs in 2018, its position as the fastest-growing carrier group is somewhat misleading. The majority of DHL Express’ traffic is logged as flown by the carriers operating on its behalf, either on a CMI or ACMI basis, and so the base is much lower than the traffic DHL moves by air. Similarly, although Saudia Cargo’s traffic reported to IATA in 2018 represented a major increase over 2017 figures, no changes were made to the fleet. Rather, better utilization of existing freighter assets, many of which had previously been idled, led to traffic growth in 2018. As for the No.4 fastest-growing carrier, HNA Group carriers made no significant changes to their freighter fleets in 2018. Instead, traffic growth stemmed from better utilization of bellyhold capacity on international routes served by widebody passenger aircraft. In 2018 alone, the group’s passenger carriers added ten 787-9s, five A350-900s and fifteen A330-300s. Moving on to the No. 3 and No. 5 fastest-growing carriers by traffic, Turkish Airlines and Qatar Airways, both carriers are rapidly ascending the top carrier rankings with expanding freighter fleets driving growth. In 2018, Turkish took delivery of an A330-200F and three 777Fs and opened up a number of new scheduled freighter destinations including Brussels (BRU), Kigali (KGL), Muscat (MCT), Mexico City (MEX), Stansted (STN), Bengaluru (BLR), Viracopos (VCP) and Ho Chi Minh City (SGN). Qatar Airways, meanwhile, grew its 777F fleet to fifteen units and become the second-largest operator of the type after FedEx. As Qatar added 777Fs, it launched round-the-world 777F service through Macau (MFM), Los Angeles (LAX), MEX and Liege (LGG). Of course, with total market FTKs up only 3.5% y-o-y, according to IATA, when there are carriers outpacing that growth rate, there are others losing market share. Only eleven of the Top 50 carriers operating freighters reported y-o-y traffic declines in 2018. Of those, just four adjusted their fleets. At the bottom of the list and something of an anomaly is Nippon Cargo Airlines, which grounded its entire fleet of three 747-400Fs and eight 747-8Fs in June 2018 when the Japanese Civil Aviation Bureau discovered inconsistencies in the carrier’s maintenance records. With the gradual resumption of operations lasting until the final quarter of 2018, NCA’s traffic performance was bound to suffer. The airline also announced that it was terminating all 747-400F operations so it could focus its efforts on the eight -8Fs, and in January this year expanded its CMI agreement with Atlas Air to include the three 747-400Fs, taking the total number of -400Fs operated by Atlas for NCA to five. The second-largest decrease in traffic on our list came from Etihad, which toward the end of 2017 began withdrawing its fleet of A330-200Fs from use as part of a wider corporate restructuring effort that would result in a much smaller freighter network. All five of Etihad’s A330Fs were eventually acquired by DHL.

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