Podcast: Astral’s Gadhia to share optimism at Cargo Facts EMEA

Robert Luke
Hello and welcome to this episode of Cargo Facts Connect, the podcast of cargo facts, the newsletter of record for the air cargo and Freighter Aircraft Industries, for over 40 years. I’m your host, Robert Luke, senior associate editor of cargo facts and joining me today is founder and chief executive of Astral Aviation, Mr. Sanjeev Gadhia. Hello, Sanjeev. And thank you for joining us once more.

Sanjeev Gadhia
Thank you, Rob and thank you for the opportunity to be a part of the podcast.

Robert Luke
It’s always a pleasure to have you on board because you get such great insight and you’re really in an ideal location you’re in, you know, Nairobi, Africa and you serve pretty much globally everywhere from China to the Middle East to various locations throughout Africa and indirectly you do. Also have connectivity to the United States. So we’re thankful to always get your insight as to the latest transactions and developments within the industry. And with that being said, as we prepare to embark on cargo facts EMEA for 2025, our 7th annual conference that will be held in Istanbul. Just take a few minutes to share with us what you see happening throughout the industry and what you expect just from your own insight and analysis going forward. As we go through some of these geopolitical events that are altering, or rather I should say shifting the trajectory of air cargo. Overall.

Sanjeev Gadhia
Thank you. Thank you, rob. And and I’m taking a very optimistic view of the current situation that is actually happening and not focusing too much on the China US geopolitical situation, but focusing on Europe, Middle East and Africa, which is a very dynamic region. And you know when you look at Europe, Middle East and Africa, sometimes I believe it’s a bit unfair to put all the three regions into one cluster because Europe has its own dynamics, the Middle East. Which is a very major transshipment hub between which connects various parts of the world. Also, is is very dynamic and Africa being Africa constitutes only 2% of of the global trade in air cargo. So when I look at the region, I believe that the region is poised to have a major surge with all the geopolitical situation that’s happening and I feel very bullish that within the next three months. After the dust has settled, and if you look at the regions which are poised to have significant growth, I actually believe that this region of Europe, Middle East and Africa is where I see a lot of new opportunities. But when we look at new opportunities, we have to bear in mind that we’re actually going to experience an overcapacity. Because some of the freighters which are actually going to start slowing down from China to the US start seeing some of that capacity. Coming into Europe, Middle East and Africa and and I believe we will also see a reality situation where we might start seeing. A reduction in yields because typically what happens when you have an overcapacity situation is you start seeing yields coming down and airlines would actually have to think outside the box. And I believe that to a certain extent, we’re very complacent, you know, and and we only deal with. A crisis when it actually. Hits us on the face, but now we’re seeing a situation where we have to really be very innovative, creative on where, where are the opportunities going to be and and of course in a dynamic situation where the geopolitical risk is now #1 on everybody’s list of priorities. I really believe that it will only take those who have an innovative and a collaborative mindset to actually lead the way and then of course we we hope that they will not be too casualties and I really believe that in the end, when the dust settles, we will actually see a new dynamic change in, in, in, in volumes. And I really believe that my optimism for Europe, Middle East and Africa is yet to stay and I really feel that with what. Is happening geopolitically. I really believe that especially the Middle East and Africa is going to win. But again, you know, when you look at Europe. I’m also a bit concerned about whether the European Union is going to follow the United States in making changes to the de minimis requirement. As you’re aware, the European Union has a requirement of €150 compared to the US, which is $800.00 and.
They make any changes to that. Of course, that will also be quite fatal because there’s a large volume of e-commerce which is currently moving into Europe.
So that’s going to be very interesting. When I look at the Middle East, of course, I see a lot of positivity. You know the the Middle East and Africa has actually been spared when it comes to the very large hike in, in the tariffs. And in my country, for example, we are at 10% and of course it was previously 0, now it’s 10%. But I would act. Hate to think if it went from zero to 45 or 50%. So I really believe that some of these countries will experience some level of growth after that. And All in all, I’m feeling very positive and bullish, and I’m also looking forward to actually expressing the same and learning when we meet in Istanbul next week.

Robert Luke
You know, as I was listening to you, three things came to mind. Putting the de minimis aside, we’ve seen a lot of you know. Indecisive decision making for lack of a better term happening with these these tariff wars between the primary countries. So are we seeing or are you projecting that operators are still kind of remaining hesitant right now or are they taking action to divert away from? The higher costs that are going to impact their potential yields on the existing markets they serve, Ed as we explore the growth or attraction to serving the Middle East, Africa and Europe, could we potentially see more deals unfold like that was just recently occur between Avianca and TAAG? Where you see other operators partnering together to expand into new markets or build connectivity to where there may not have been previously a strong trade lane opening for air cargo service.

Sanjeev Gadhia
Absolutely. And when you look at Africa as a continent, we are seeing very similar partnerships and a good example is our partnership with Emirates, which we announced in February 2025 at the air Cargo Africa event. We’re also in talks with Turkish Airlines, also in talks with Saudi to try and see how we can expand the partnership because we really have to look at a collaborative approach to come out of this. And if you look at the bigger picture, I really believe that this shake up was necessary because I believe we were too complacent with with everything that was actually happening and reminded me of the post COVID boom, which did not last very long. It only lasted for a year because there was just a limited amount of PPS that you could move. There was a limited amount of.
Vaccines that you could move and then immediately in 2023 there was a reality check. That you know, you can’t really count on the boom of COVID-19.
So sometimes it’s good in life to actually have some of this jaunts, and it actually helps us to, to actually sort of, you know, rethink our approach and try and see what can we do for long term sustainability rather than actually short term gain. So I really believe that the collaborative approach is something that we will actually see happening. We will start looking at. We’ll start seeing underserved trade lanes. Start getting more capacity. A good example is when you look at the Hong Kong Tel Aviv sector, you know it’s it’s a very dynamic sector. There’s some good volumes in there. We’ll start seeing more capacity coming on to that, another very nice region is the is the Hong Kong Johannesburg sector, which is currently generating between 250 to 300 tons of e-commerce every week. And we could actually see a shift where some of these. Volumes could move through the Middle East and then into South Africa. So what will actually start seeing is a lot of innovation coming in and and I really believe that. There will be some level of uncertainty between May and July, but traditionally when we go to the peak season, which is the season from September, all the way till December, I really believe that we will have a lot of clarity, but it is definitely very clear that we will have some level of uncertainty over the next two to three months. With airline CEO’s not able to decide or to come up with a strategic plan so all those years of having three and five year strategic plans are all gone out of the window. Now from a strategic planning point of view, you can only plan 3 months at.
A time which means that you have to be so agile and so flexible in your decision making that when you’re actually projecting, you can no longer project even one year is too long. You really have to do your forecast and projection on a quarterly basis and that’s the only way that you can actually continue to operate and maintain that niche.

Robert Luke
Those are really good insights sanjeev, and thank you for sharing that. We look forward to seeing you next week. Thanks again. That was Sanjeev Gadhia, founder and CEO of Astral Aviation. And that’s all we have time for today. Thank you very much for tuning in, and join us again next time on the Cargo Facts Connect podcast.