The Asia-Pacific fleet: diverse mix ripe for renewal and expansion

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]In a recent market briefing ahead of the Singapore Airshow, Airbus noted the growth potential that the Asia-Pacific region presents: It is home to more than half of the world’s population, and its emerging economies will drive an overall average annual GDP growth of 3.6% compared to the global average of 2.5%. Airbus predicts that cargo traffic in the region will also see yearly growth of 3.6% compared to the global average of 3.1%. This means that carriers will need 2,440 dedicated cargo aircraft over the next twenty years for the global freighter aircraft industry, including 880 new-build freighters, according to the European manufacturer. Boeing, in its Commercial Market Outlook for 2021-2040, provides a more detailed breakdown: the planemaker expects the Asia-Pacific region to see 285 new production freighter deliveries between 2021-2040: 200 for China, twenty-five for Southeast Asia, ten for South Asia, fifty for Northeast Asia and fewer than five for Oceania. After North America at 410, Asia Pacific is the region with the second-highest number of expected new freighter deliveries, according to Boeing. But apart from new production freighters, a large portion of the overall fleet will be made up of conversions. Taking these aircraft into account, as well as expected retirements, Boeing estimates the global freighter fleet in 2040 to consist of 3,435 units. Of these, 1,160 will be based in the Asia-Pacific region — including 810 in China, 100 in Southeast Asia, seventy in South Asia, 140 in Northeast Asia and forty in Oceania. It is important to point out that for the purposes of this analysis, in which we examine the freighter aircraft based in the Asia-Pacific region, Cargo Facts defines “Asia Pacific” as everything East of the Caspian Sea and Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Iran. We also include Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea and Nauru. In terms of the aircraft in question, here we cover all Airbus and Boeing freighter aircraft, whether production or converted, along with ATRs, the BAe 146 and the Saab 340. As can be seen from the summary table, there were 416 freighters based in nineteen countries in the Asia-Pacific region as of the end of February, according to Cargo Facts ’ estimation. More than half of the freighters in the region were registered in China, with 212 units, including thirty 747Fs, thirty-one 777Fs, thirteen A330Fs, thirteen 767Fs, nine A300Fs, fifty-three 757Fs, twelve 737NGs and fifty-one 737 Classics. For sheer number of overall freighters, South Korea and Taiwan were next-highest on the list, with thirty-eight and twenty-nine aircraft in their inventory, respectively. While in China there were ninety-six widebodies and 116 narrowbodies, both the South Korean and Taiwanese fleets had an overwhelmingly large proportion of widebodies; in fact, Taiwan’s China Airlines and EVA Air’s freighter fleets comprised only 747-400Fs and 777Fs. Other countries with only widebodies include Iran, Japan, Kyrgyzstan, Singapore and Uzbekistan, while Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Nauru, New Zealand, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines and Thailand all only had narrowbody or regional freighters.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row full_width="stretch_row_content" vc_row_background="" css=".vc_custom_1648774585201{padding-right: 200px !important;padding-left: 200px !important;}"][vc_column][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text] 737 Classics still dominate the landscape Perhaps unsurprisingly, older 737 Classic and Original freighters continued to be the most prevalent type in the region, with thirty-one -400s, sixty-nine -300s and four -200s spread across ten countries. China was the heaviest user by far with fifty-one units overall, while Indonesia came in second with eighteen and New Zealand followed with eleven. While a couple of 737 Classics have left the active fleets of Asia-Pacific operators during the last twelve months — such as Pakistan-based Air Falcon’s sole 737-300F (27713, ex-Southwest) that received damage to its left horizontal stabilizer during a flight in April 2021 — others have entered the picture, like the 1997-vintage 737-300F (28869, ex-Star Air Cargo) that joined Malaysia-based World Cargo Airlines in July 2021. There has been some movement of Classics within the region itself, most notably in Indonesia. Cardig Air, which restarted operations in 2020 with a 737-400F (25857, ex-British Airways), stopped flying the 1993-vintage aircraft after just a few months. It was not until the second half of 2021 that the 737 appeared in the colors of fellow Indonesia-based carrier My Indo Airlines. Also in Indonesia, Rimbun Air entered the jet freighter market in 2021 with a 1993-vintage 737-300F (26288, ex-China Postal Airlines) and in early 2022 added a sister aircraft (26284) that China Postal had removed as part of its own fleet renewal with 737-800BCFs. 737NGs are still relatively sparse in Asia Pacific, with only twenty-four present in China, India, Malaysia, South Korea and Thailand, but the numbers will climb progressively as conversions ramp up and redeliveries increasingly join operators both existing and new. 747s and 757s most numerous in East Asia [caption id="attachment_417864" align="alignright" width="560"] There are twenty-two 747-400Fs in South Korea. (Photo/Asiana Airlines)[/caption] The second most numerous type in the region was the 747, consisting of twenty-nine -8Fs, forty-seven -400Fs, nine -400BDSFs and four -200Fs. Many of these large widebodies reside at Asian heavyweight players like Cathay Pacific and Korean Air. The 757 is interesting because it is so heavily concentrated in one country, with Air China, China Postal Airlines, North-western Cargo International Airlines, SF Airlines and YTO Cargo Airlines accounting for a collective fifty-three units. India was the only other country that is home to the type, with six at Blue Dart Aviation. The 757 contingent in China will grow further in 2022 as the type’s appeal to express carriers in the country has meant more acquisitions and inductions; North-western Cargo International Airlines, SF Airlines and YTO Cargo Airlines all have multiple units incoming, and in fact, North-western and YTO each took redelivery of a 757-200PCF in February that they have yet to put into service. These two units (32942, ex-Xiamen Airlines, and 29593, ex-American Airlines) are therefore not included in our tally.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row vc_row_background=""][vc_column][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text] A region of extremes Looking more closely at the nature of the freighter fleets of Asia-Pacific operators, it is clear that the region is characterized by a wide variety of ages. As of the end of February, the oldest aircraft overall was a 1975-vintage 737-200 (20944, ex-Republic Express Airlines) flying with My Indo Airlines, followed by another 1979-vintage 737-200 (21959, ex-International Trans Air Business) with SEAir International in the Philippines. There were two other freighters more than forty years old, both based in Kyrgyzstan: unit 141 (ex-Sigma Airlines) with Aerostan and unit 183 (ex-Geo Fly Airways) with KAP.kg. On the other end of the spectrum, there were two brand-new, 2022-vintage 777Fs: unit 67453 with China Cargo Airlines and unit 67033 with EVA Air. Across the region, there were 239 freighters that were aged twenty and above, consisting of fifty widebodies and 189 narrowbodies or regional aircraft. Of these 239 freighters, 154 were twenty-five years old or more, consisting of thirty-one widebodies and 123 narrowbodies or regional aircraft. Although the proportions of widebodies and narrowbodies (including regional) were roughly on par with each other, the average age of the narrowbody fleet at 20.53 years was almost double that of the widebody segment’s 10.93. Change on the horizon Based on currently known orders and deals, the Asia-Pacific freighter fleet is set to undergo a significant transformation on multiple fronts. [caption id="attachment_417863" align="alignright" width="560"] There are now two 767F operators in China. (Photo/YTO Cargo Airlines)[/caption] In China, YTO became the country’s second 767F operator after SF in January with its first widebody, a 2003-vintage 767-300BDSF (33423, ex-Air Canada). YTO purchased unit 33423 in 2021 along with a sister aircraft (33424) that will soon join the fleet after conversion in Tel Aviv (TLV). China will soon see its third 767F carrier when China Central Longhao Airlines takes delivery of up to five production 767-300Fs from Boeing. The first aircraft (67023) appears to be in the final phase of flight tests. Meanwhile, SF Airlines took redelivery of its thirteenth 767-300BCF in February, bringing its fleet to sixty-nine aircraft overall. With six or seven 757-200s and 767-300ERs in conversion, SF is on track to surpass as many as seventy-five freighters before the year is over. A number of carriers both in and outside China are looking at the A330 medium-widebody freighter for their fleet expansion: Sichuan Airlines, which already operates three production A330-200Fs, has signed up to lease two A330-300P2Fs from CDB Aviation, with the first expected toward the end of 2022, meaning Air Hong Kong will no longer be the sole Asia-Pacific operator of A330-300P2Fs. CDB also recently announced it will lease one A330-300P2F to new carrier Jiangxi Cargo Airlines in 2023 and, having ordered twelve more A330-300P2F conversions with Elbe Flugzeugwerke (EFW), it would not be surprising to see more of the freighters find homes with carriers in the region. After taking a third A321-200P2F, Australia-based Qantas proceeded to order two A330-200P2F conversions with EFW and will induct the first around August, while Turkmenistan Airlines, which announced two A330-200P2F conversions in January 2021, said at the time that it expected them in 2022 but the status of that deal is currently unclear. 737-800Fs have continued to join Asia-Pacific operators, although not yet in huge numbers, but China Central Longhao Airlines and China Postal Airlines in particular have added much younger frames that have helped to push down the average age of the overall fleet. That trend is likely to continue. In terms of operators, Malaysia-based Kargo Xpress joined the list and now has two 737-800BCFs on lease from AerCap, while South Korean low-cost carrier Jeju Air worked with Aviator Capital to send one of its own 737-800s (30694) for conversion and will become the country’s second 737-800F operator when the 2006-vintage freighter rejoins its fleet by the end of June. At least two new A321P2F operators will surface in the next couple of years: India-based IndiGo expects to take delivery around mid-2022 of its first freighter, the 2007-vintage unit 3267 (ex-Avion Express) on lease from Castlelake, and Japan Airlines subsidiary Jetstar Japan will fly three A321-200P2Fs beginning in 2024 on a CMI basis for Yamato Transport. In the longer term, Singapore Airlines will become the region’s first operator of the new A350F when deliveries begin in the fourth quarter of 2025. The carrier signed a letter of intent (LOI) with Airbus in December 2021 for seven units and five options, saying it intends to replace its seven production 747-400Fs. That order became firm in February at the Singapore Airshow. Overall, with some of the biggest names in the business operating large widebodies along with growing express carriers and other specialists spurred on by e-commerce, the Asia-Pacific is as diverse as it is dynamic. Cargo Facts expects continued diversification in the region in the year ahead — both in terms of operator and type — while the average age of the collective fleet will likely decrease as carriers look at renewal options. This story originally appeared in the March 2022 issue of Cargo Facts . Cargo Facts EMEA will take place LIVE May 9-11 in Dubai. Learn more and register. [/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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