Boeing predicts more freighter conversions over next 20 years

Boeing said in its latest Commercial Market Outlook that the number of active jet freighters in the global fleet will exceed 4,000 by the end of 2045. Over the next two decades, 2,930 freighters will enter the market while 1,315 will be retired, growing the fleet from 2,395 units to 4,010 — an increase of approximately 67%, according to Boeing’s annual twenty-year Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) published today. [caption id="attachment_57298301" align="aligncenter" width="1488"] Boeing offers 737-800BCF and 767-300BCF conversions. (Courtesy/GAMECO)[/caption] The 2,930 additional freighters will include 930 new-build freighters and 2,000 conversions: 675 production large widebodies; 200 large-widebody conversions; 255 production medium widebodies; 660 medium-widebody conversions; and 1,140 narrowbody conversions. The number of production freighters Boeing projects to enter service over the next twenty years is lower than in its 2025 CMO , in which the company said 955 new-build freighters and 1,945 conversions would come online through 2044. “The number is slightly lower because of the interplay between new freighters and conversions,” Darren Hulst, vice president of commercial marketing at Boeing, told Cargo Facts . “There are fewer options in the new-build market, so we expect the mix between new and conversions to skew slightly more toward conversions,” he said. “But over the long term, we’re still pretty confident that the long-haul market still needs new-build freighters.” Delayed deliveries of new-generation widebodies could be a factor. Boeing’s new 777-8F, with eighty-one units in the backlog as of June 30, is in production and will not enter service until at least 2029 . Airbus, which as of June 30 had firm orders from fourteen customers for 107 of its upcoming A350F, expects entry into service for that freighter in late 2027 . Boeing’s outlook is more optimistic than Cargo Facts Consulting’s twenty-year Freighter Forecast, most recently updated at the end of March. That forecast predicts the worldwide fleet to grow from 2,215 units at the end of 2026 to 3,459 by 2045. “We’ve always held a more conservative view,” Cargo Facts Consulting Director Guillermo Ochovo told Cargo Facts . “The global fleet has tended not to inflate as much as predicted for a number of reasons,” he said. “Right now, we see production delays affecting feedstock availability and with production rates of new passenger aircraft ramping up, some markets could see more competition with belly cargo. The fleet numbers need to match demand.” The two regions that Boeing expects to receive most of the estimated 2,930 new and converted freighters are Asia Pacific with 1,035 units and North America with 905, according to the CMO. Despite annual cargo traffic highs in 2025 amid volatiality and disruption, Boeing forecasts an average growth rate for world air cargo traffic of 3.7% per year through 2045, unchanged from its 2025 CMO, the manufacturer said. Airbus, which on July 8 released its 2026-2045 Global Market Forecast focusing on the passenger market, will share its cargo-specific outlook in the fall, Communications Manager Victoria Grayling confirmed to Cargo Facts . Cargo Facts Symposium 2026, the premier event for the freighter aircraft and air cargo industries, will take place in Nashville, Tenn., on Oct. 21-23. Find out more and register by Sept. 4 to take advantage of early-bird pricing.

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