30% of freighter additions over next 20 years going to China

China will account for almost 30% of the new production and converted freighters entering service over the next twenty years, according to Airbus’ latest forecast. Chinese carriers will operate 690 of the 2,470 freighters joining the global fleet from 2024 through 2043, the European planemaker said during the Zhuhai Airshow on Nov. 11. [caption id="attachment_57146678" align="alignright" width="1665"] Sichuan Airlines was the first A330 freighter operator in mainland China. (Courtesy/Budapest Airport)[/caption] Of the 690 freighters, 100 will be in the large-widebody segment, 220 in the medium-widebody segment and 370 will be narrowbodies, according to Airbus. While the 370 narrowbodies will presumably be conversions, Airbus expects 190 of the widebodies to be production and 130 to be conversions. China’s freighter fleet will nearly triple over the next twenty years with e-commerce being a primary driver of growth, the European manufacturer said. China’s expanding fleet Airbus’ dominance in China’s freighter fleet is growing. As Cargo Facts reported in September, one-third of all EFW-converted Airbus widebody freighters are registered in China. Most of the A330-300P2Fs are in operation with Air Hong Kong, but Air China, Sichuan Airlines and Capital Airlines all began flying A330 conversions in the past twelve months. HNA Aviation Group will also add A330 freighters to its fleet as part of a recent deal with EFW. Cathay Pacific placed an order with Airbus in 2023 for six A350Fs with an option for twenty more as part of its fleet renewal strategy and would become the first Chinese operator of the type. Meanwhile, China Southern Cargo and China Cargo Airlines have set the pace for new 777F deliveries in China. In the narrowbody segment, China Postal Airlines — the largest operator of 737-800 freighters in the country — is looking to expand its next-generation freighter fleet, and Sichuan Airlines began providing lift capacity with the A321F in the fourth quarter of 2023 and is set to add more. The converted and production freighter additions are a sample of China’s fleet trajectory as carriers look to expand operations. Global market forecast Airbus’ 2024 global market forecast (GMF), released in July, predicted that approximately 46% of the 2,470 incoming freighters will add lift capacity and the remaining 54% will replace older freighters. The number of large-widebody freighters in Airbus’ 2024 GMF rose to 620 this year from 600 in 2023. However, the medium-widebody figure decreased to 880 from 890, while the number of narrowbody freighters declined to 970 from 1,020. By contrast, Boeing has said it expects Chinese airlines to add 585 production and converted freighters over the next twenty years, including 170 new deliveries. Like Airbus, the American manufacturer believes the Chinese freighter fleet will almost triple to around 700 units by 2043. Overall, Boeing’s freighter outlook was more optimistic than Airbus , with the global freighter fleet growing at 2.6% per year and 2,845 units entering service from 2024 through 2043. Register now for Cargo Facts' essential regional events for industry stakeholders: Cargo Facts LATAM 2025 on Feb. 10-11 at the Pullman Sao Paulo Guarulhos Airport in Brazil; Cargo Facts Asia 2025 on March 24-26 at the W Shanghai in China; and Cargo Facts EMEA 2025 on May 6-8 at the Shangri-La Bosphorus in Turkey.

30% of freighter additions over next 20 years going to China

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