777F production restart paves way for large-widebody capacity relief

The resumption of 777F production could help add much-needed capacity to the large-widebody freighter segment and pave the way for deliveries to new operators, but the injection of new maindeck capacity depends on Boeing’s ability to scale up as the end of 777F production in 2027 looms. The International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers voted to ratify the Boeing contract on Nov. 4, ending a seven-week strike. Boeing can now start building and delivering the seventy-one 777Fs it had on its backlog as of Sept. 30, along with 767-300Fs and 737s. [caption id="attachment_57146528" align="aligncenter" width="1691"] Boeing is set to end 777F production at the end of 2027. (Courtesy/Boeing)[/caption] The large-widebody freighter market is experiencing a shortage of capacity , due in part to an aging fleet, operators and lessors holding onto potential feedstock aircraft for longer because of the strong passenger market, engine issues and certification delays with 777 conversions, industry experts agreed at Cargo Facts Symposium 2024 in October. Ramping up deliveries Boeing declined to comment today on a timeline for a resumption of production, but Altavair Chief Executive Stephen Rimmer told Cargo Facts that it is hard to judge what the impact of the strike will be. “The fundamental remains dependent on how quickly Boeing can ramp back up production,” he said. “For every month that elapses without 777F deliveries, that is two fewer 777Fs that will ever be built, given the end date of production in 2027, and the inability to realistically ramp up 777F production between now and then.” Boeing’s return to production could be constrained by a supply chain shift to Airbus during the strike, based on financial and logistical reasons, Rimmer said. Some of the 777Fs Boeing has yet to deliver are destined for operators flying the type for the first time, including United Kingdom-based One Air , which expects to start flying two in 2025, and National Airlines , which announced a commitment to order four during the Farnborough International Airshow in July. Boeing will look to maximize production through 2027, when it must end production because the 777F does not comply with the FAA’s Airplane Fuel Efficiency Certification rule. The rule prescribes carbon emissions standards adopted by the Environmental Protection Agency that are based on those prescribed by the International Civil Aviation Organization. Boeing aims to minimize further delays to its 777-8F and -9 programs after the contract ratification. “Delays to the 777X program will impact widebody retirements, with predominantly 777-300ER operators,” Rimmer said. “Feedstock for conversion will remain scarce and expensive.” The contract The union agreed to end the strike when 59% of its members approved the contract. Terms include: A pay increase of 38% over four years; A signing bonus of $12,000; Restoration of an annual performance bonus valued at up to 6%, with an annual guaranteed payout of 4%; An automatic contribution of 4% by the company into its 401(k) retirement plan and a company match of workers’ contribution of up to 8%; and A commitment to building Boeing’s next commercial jet in the Seattle area if the program is launched within four years of the agreement. The planemaker attributed its $9.97 loss per share for the third quarter to the strike, according to Boeing’s quarterly earnings report in October. Boeing’s shares opened at $156.03 today but dipped $5 to close at $151.02. Cargo Facts LATAM 2025, the essential event for stakeholders in Latin America, will take place Feb. 10-11 at the Pullman Sao Paulo Guarulhos Airport. Learn more and register by Dec. 29 to take advantage of early-bird pricing.

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