777F values elevated in limited widebody market

The industry is placing a high premium on 777 production freighters amid limited short-term options for widebody lift capacity. “The market for large widebodies has been extremely overheated, especially with 777Fs,” George Dimitroff, head of valuations at Cirium Ascend, said during an appraisal panel at Cargo Facts EMEA 2025 in Istanbul last week. “We’ve seen ten-year-old aircraft selling as a naked, unencumbered asset for almost the same as what they were bought for brandnew — hardly any depreciation in ten years, which is wonderful for the owners,” he added. [caption id="attachment_57288888" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] Cargo Facts Consulting Director Guillermo Ochovo, far left, moderates a panel with, from left, George Dimitroff of Cirium Ascend; Alice Gondry of MUFG Bank; and Mark Halsor of Aviation Asset Management. (Photo/Cargo Facts)[/caption] A ten-year-old 777F today in full-life maintenance condition, which is comparable to the condition it would have been in when new, has a market value of approximately $137.1 million — not too far from the full-life market value of $156 million when it was brand new in May 2015, Dimitroff said. Meanwhile, the market value on delivery of a brand-new 777F today is approximately $168.2 million, he said. 777F market rates could eventually return to their base value — where supply and demand are in equilibrium — but not below, as the industry recalibrates itself. This is especially the case as economic uncertainty surrounds the trade war between China and the United States and the trans-Pacific trade lane, Dimitroff said. “We're just going from like a white-hot market to an orange market, or a more balanced market, in our lingo,” he said. Gross orders for Boeing’s large, twin-engine freighter increased to 400 in March. The 777 freighter is a proven, factory-built option as the industry awaits the certification and entry into service of 777 conversion programs by Mammoth Freighters , IAI and KMC over the next two years, as well as the new A350F and 777-8F toward the end of the decade. “Essentially, there are no other options at this moment in time,” Alice Gondry, director of aviation research at MUFG Bank, said during the discussion. 777 feedstock constricted Certification of the 777 conversion programs already face the challenge of securing feedstock as passenger operators extend leases on 777-300ERs. For example, Emirates, the largest operator of passenger 777-300ERs, has extended leases on many of its older units that would be suitable feedstock for conversion, Dimitroff said. “We have airlines approaching lessors saying that another airline has an aircraft expiring in three years and we want it,” he said. “And then the lessor is going to that other airline, and the other airline is saying, ‘No, we’re going to extend the lease deal three years in advance by at least another six years.’” Production or converted 777 freighter Apart from feedstock availability, the conversion cost, operational capabilities and maintenance must be considered when comparing the passenger-to-freighter programs to the production-built type. In the past — during the pandemic, for example — the equation favored conversion because of plentiful feedstock and conversion costs were lower, Mark Halsor, president of Aviation Asset Management, said during the panel. “We’re now seeing from customers who are all in after the conversion, they’re closing in at $90 million to $95 million,” Halsor said. While that is still significantly below the cost of a production freighter, the price difference begins to shrink when a customer evaluates factors like performance and maintenance risk, he said. Even with growing conversion costs, the 777 conversion programs will become more economical for carriers as the programs mature and redeliveries ramp up, Gondry said. See more coverage of Cargo Facts EMEA 2025 .

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