Widebody growth slows in 2022

On the final day of January, thousands gathered to celebrate the Boeing 747 known as the “Queen of the Skies” and say goodbye during a farewell ceremony that rekindled fond memories of the first large widebody aircraft. The event also gave many a healthy distraction from the industry’s recent downturn. As Atlas Air prepared to take delivery of the last 747 Boeing built, it became apparent that the production cycle of the quad-engine widebody freighters had come to an end and the transition to twin-engine widebody freighters had truly begun. [caption id="attachment_56861467" align="alignright" width="450"] Atlas Air added three 747-8Fs and a 777F in 2022. (Photo/Kuehne+Nagel)[/caption] While dedicated operators such as Air Atlanta Icelandic, National Airlines and Aerotranscargo diligently seek more 747Fs to add to their fleet, unfortunately, current economic conditions along with climate control initiatives will eventually ground the aircraft in favor of its twin-engine successors permanently. Silk Way West and Cargolux have already announced plans to replace their 747 freighters with 777-8Fs and A350Fs. Cathay Pacific once operated thirteen 747-400BCFs before placing its last one into storage in September 2019 and is currently in discussions with Boeing and Airbus to finalize a replacement for its 747Fs. Based on Cargo Facts research, there were 305 converted and production 747 freighters out of 1,329 widebody jet freighters in service as of Jan. 31, 2023. The total represents an increase of forty-four aircraft from a year ago, while the net percentage growth of 3.4% represents a slight year-over-year decline in growth by 2 percentage points. Our research examines the global fleet transactions that have occurred over the past twelve months with an emphasis on new orders placed with manufacturers, fleet adjustments made by carriers and changes operators have made with regard to aircraft type preference. We note that for the purposes of this analysis, only aircraft built by Airbus, Boeing and McDonnell Douglas are included. There are four categories of operators that will be evaluated in this analysis: combination carriers such as Emirates and Korean Air; express carriers that operate for and on behalf of express integrators like DHL and UPS; scheduled all-cargo carriers specializing in freight-only flight service like Amerijet and Cargolux; and specialist carriers that are service providers in the ACMI, CMI and own-controlled segments, such as Air Atlanta Icelandic and Air Transport Services Group (ATSG). The table on this page shows the global widebody jet freighter fleet as of Jan. 31. Those airlines and affiliates that belong to the same parent group or those with common investors are marked with an asterisk. A slight weight loss in heavy fleet rotation After a positive rebound in 2021, the total number of active large widebody freighters stayed stagnant when compared with 2022. Even with the twenty-one more 777Fs entering service, the number of 747Fs decreased by nine aircraft last year as all the 747-8Fs and 747-400Fs operated by AirBridgeCargo and its partners were parked indefinitely after the war in Ukraine began. [caption id="attachment_56861469" align="alignleft" width="450"] Emirates took two new 777Fs in 2022. (Photo/Emirates)[/caption] FedEx Express placed its remaining eight MD-10-30Fs into early retirement in Q4 2022, bringing the number down to one MD-10-30F flown by Bolivia-based Transportes Aéreos Bolivianos. Meanwhile, two more 747 Classic freighters recently came out of storage, with Kyrgyzstan-based Aerostan and Uzbekistan-based My Freighter each adding one 747-200F. Air Atlanta Icelandic added two factory-built, nose-loader 747-400Fs in 2022 and now operates a total of fourteen 747Fs, having also added Fly Meta’s own-controlled 747-400BDSF (26343) that previously flew with Asiana Airlines. In Eastern Europe, another previously stored 747-400 freighter recently took to the skies with Romania-based ROM Cargo Airlines, which began operations with a 1992-vintage 747-400BDSF after the aircraft had been removed from preservation in 2021 at Mojave (MHV). Medium widebodies turn in large numbers Unlike its large widebody freighter counterparts, the medium widebody freighters — particularly the 767-300Fs — had a noticeable growth spurt that saw fourteen 767-300BDSFs, ten 767-300BCFs and sixteen 767-300Fs join operator fleets across the globe. Among the many 767Fs to enter service last year, Cargojet’s first freighter was a 767-300BDSF (24040, ex-Blue Panorama Airlines) that spent ten months in Israel prior to redelivery. The carrier would add a second 767-300BDSF in July 2022. China-based SF Airlines took redelivery of five 767-300BCFs last year, increasing its medium-widebody fleet to seventeen 767Fs and expects to add more 767 freighters in 2023 and operate more than eighty aircraft by yearend. There was a flurry of 767 freighter activity in the Americas with FedEx Express taking delivery of thirteen 767-300Fs in the past twelve months. The integrator currently has 125 of the factory-built freighters delivering airfreight. A few degrees north, Air Canada acquired two 767-300Fs and placed two more 767-300BDSFs into its air cargo division. Denmark-based Maersk Air Cargo reached an agreement with Boeing for three new-build 767-300Fs that were placed into CMI with Miami-based Amerijet, while leasing its first 767-300BDSF on lease from Air Transport Services Group’s (ATSG). South America welcomed four more twin-engine freighters when LATAM secured a used 2010-vintage 767-300F (37802) and took redelivery of three 767-300BCFs sourced from the airline’s passenger feedstock. Other new 767Fs operator emerged in 2022. In Africa, Ethiopian Airlines took redelivery of the first of three 767-300BDSFs that had undergone conversion at the carrier’s own facility in Addis Ababa, while Icelandair began flying the first of two 767-300BCFs it is leasing from Titan Aircraft Investments. Order pendulum shifts to large widebodies Twelve months ago, large widebodies — ranging from 747-8Fs to MD-10Fs — made up just over half of the entire in-service widebody freighter fleet but as of the end of January 2023, it is the medium widebody segment that has inched past 50%, driven by A330 and 767 conversions as well as new-build 767-300Fs. However, the story is very different when it comes to the production backlog. There were 172 new, large widebody freighters to be delivered as of Jan. 31, accounting for more than 75% of all new widebody freighters on order. This included contributions from all three programs currently on offer: Boeing’s new 777-8F, which is a new addition to the list, the current-generation 777F, and Airbus’ A350F. The only medium widebody freighter available to order new continues to be the 767-300F, of which fifty-five were on order as of Jan. 31, representing less than a quarter of the overall widebody backlog. With production likely to end after 2027, it is unclear how many more slots Boeing currently has left. Combination carriers make large decisions Looking at how the in-service and on-order widebody freighters are spread out across the manufacturers and types of operators, a couple of major changes are apparent. With the launch of the A350F Airbus continues to gain a larger share of the large widebody freighters on order and now accounts for around 20%, compared with 13% a year ago. As Cargo Facts has reported over the past year, combination carriers operating both freighters and passenger aircraft on a scheduled basis are progressively casting their eyes toward the future and committing to the new generation of large factory freighters. With known orders from airlines like Air France, ANA, Etihad, KLM, Lufthansa and Qatar Airways for the 777-8F and A350F, as well as 777F top-up orders from carriers like Air China, Emirates and Ethiopian, more than half of all large widebody freighters on order are now destined for combination carriers, a dramatic increase from just over 7% at the end of January 2022. As 2023 continues, Cargo Facts does not expect the in-service widebody fleet to grow at a faster rate than last year, taking into account the short-term headwinds the industry is facing that will result in more older aircraft being retired or parked. Growth will be driven almost entirely by production 777Fs in the large widebody segment, while medium widebody additions will include production 767-300Fs and 767 and A330 conversions. At the same time, the widebody backlog is likely to continue to expand, primarily thanks to orders for 777-8Fs, A350Fs and 777Fs as carriers and lessors look to replace older aircraft. On the other hand, growth of the medium widebody backlog may be limited with 767-300F production expected to end in 2027 and the absence of a replacement new-build from either Boeing or Airbus.

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