Stored freighters dwindling as demand stays high

We have seen a drastic rise in demand for air cargo since the COVID-19 pandemic began in early 2020 — and, as a result, the demand for cargo aircraft. Airlines and lessors scrambled to shift their focus from passenger to freight as passenger demand dried up. For airlines, this transition was made easier by the relaxing of regulations surrounding the carriage of cargo on passenger decks. For lessors, this transition involved converting passenger aircraft into freighters, a process that is not quick and is capital intensive. STC holders rushed to ramp up output by creating new conversion lines and expanding existing ones. We now see airlines such as Air Canada building off the momentum they have generated from the use of passenger freighters by re-entering the freighter market with conversions and new aircraft orders. Analysts, such as Eric Kulisch , have raised concerns about a looming freighter surplus as early as 2026 as demand for air cargo "cools off." However, some airlines are still bullish and are jumping in line with conversion or production freighter orders. For those airlines that are skeptical about how long this "cargo boom" will last, we wanted to see which aircraft they could get their hands on immediately. The short answer: not much. We started our analysis by reviewing the CH-Aviation database and then taking a look at aircraft radar data to verify when the aircraft last flew. Radar data out of China and parts of Africa can be spotty at best; in some cases, we have to rely on industry contacts and other journalists' articles to determine if the aircraft is active or not. We focused our analysis on aircraft from 3 categories: "Turboprop" (ATR42, ATR72, CRJ200, DHC8); Narrowbody (A320, A321, B737, B757); and Widebody (A330, B747, B767, B777, MD11). Our analysis did not include the MD/DC-10. We also excluded some aircraft types that are generally considered to be past their prime and would not be economically feasible to return to service due to age and other factors, notably 747-100/-200/-300, and 737-100/-200/-300/-500. It should be noted that aircraft that are currently labeled as "Maintenance" status we have considered Active, as they likely will return to service in the short term and are not available to other operators. The ongoing war in Ukraine has also led to the grounding of thirty-five Russian-operated aircraft: 737 (13), 747 (6), 747-8 (13), 757 (2) and 777 (1), due to the uncertainty surrounding these aircraft. We consider them to be active. Some of these aircraft have likely already been re-registered and are flying domestically in Russia. Of the freighter aircraft we surveyed, 1,925 of the 2,162 (89%) that have been in service are currently in service. All of the A330 and B747-8 freighters are active; only one 777 has been written off, and all others are active. The written-off 777 is MSN 42031, which caught fire while on the ramp at Shanghai Pudong International Airport (PVG) . The July 22, 2020, fire is believed to have been started by batteries that had been loaded on board the 6-year-old aircraft. There are currently nineteen 757s in storage; however, when you look at these aircraft closer they are almost all 25-plus years old and nearing the end of their useful lives. There are only four 767s in storage. All four of these aircraft are more than 35 years old and it is highly unlikely that any of these aircraft will return to service. The MD-11 has the highest percentage of stored and scrapped aircraft with only 61% of freighter aircraft still in service. As a result of the pandemic, Lufthansa elected to delay the retirement of its final four MD-11s from 2020 to 2021. All of these aircraft immediately found new homes with FedEx, UPS and Western Global ; in 2021 FedEx re-activated three other MD-11s . If you were looking for something smaller, there are quite a few ATR42, ATR72 and CRJ200 aircraft in storage, but with regional operators struggling to attach pilots, there may be additional reasons for the parking of these aircraft. There are currently ninety-five aircraft in various states of conversion, so help is on the way. For carriers looking for quicker ways to add capacity, the options are extremely limited.

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