Cargo traffic rebounds in June

The International Air Transport Association released its air freight market analysis for June 2016, showing a 4.3% year-over-year increase in worldwide cargo traffic (in freight tonne kilometers flown) –the strongest y-o-y growth since the first quarter of 2015.  International cargo traffic, which accounts for 87% of total traffic, was up 4.1%. For the first half of 2016, IATA reported total traffic up 0.5% and international traffic up 0.2%.

The IATA June result is in line with our prediction two weeks ago that June traffic would be up almost 5% over June 2015. However, we point out that data published by WorldACD earlier this week showed worldwide air cargo volume (in chargeable weight) up just 2.7% y-o-y for the month.

Perhaps the most interesting datum in the chart is the continuing strong growth in traffic reported by carriers in Europe. Since the traditional big three cargo carriers – Air France-KLM, Lufthansa, and IAG – are all reporting significant declines, this means the rest of Europe’s carriers must be doing very well indeed.

Looking ahead, IATA maintained its prediction that full-year 2016 cargo traffic would be up 2.1% over 2015. Given that we are at the halfway point of the year, with growth to date of just 0.5%, meeting IATA’s target will require monthly year-over-year growth of somewhere around 4% for the remainder of the year. Is this likely? It is certainly possible, but one good month does not make a trend, and, given the state of world politics (Brexit, the American election, rumblings in the South China Sea), prediction is difficult.

Get more air cargo insights at the 2016 Cargo Facts Symposium, Oct.10-12 in Miami. Click here for details.