[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]<span data-contrast="auto">In 2019, the widebody freighter fleet swelled by 5%, following on the heels of booming cargo demand between mid-2016 and 2018. It was also the start of a market cooldown </span><span data-contrast="auto">that saw </span><span data-contrast="auto">total industrywide cargo traffic drop 3.3% YoY in 2019. Under normal circumstances, these conditions would have led to a shrinking of the </span><span data-contrast="auto">world’s </span><span data-contrast="auto">widebody fleet. </span><span data-ccp-props="{"201341983":0,"335559738":240,"335559739":240,"335559740":276}"> </span> <span data-contrast="auto">But last year was anything but normal. By mid-January 2021, the fleet had grown 3.6% year</span><span data-contrast="auto"> </span><span data-contrast="auto">over</span><span data-contrast="auto"> </span><span data-contrast="auto">year to 1,218 widebody jet freighters in commercial service worldwide</span><span data-contrast="auto">,</span><span data-contrast="auto"> with seventy-two carriers or carrier groups. As </span><span data-contrast="auto">bellyhold</span><span data-contrast="auto"> capacity available on international passenger flights plummeted at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the relationship between cargo traffic and widebody fleet growth was flipped on its head as freighters became the only game in town. </span><span data-ccp-props="{"201341983":0,"335559738":240,"335559739":240,"335559740":276}"> </span> <span data-contrast="auto">“If you have 747 freighter capacity, you’re holding on to it fairly tightly. There is the occasional freighter floating around, but it’s slim pickings,” Baldvin Hermannsson, CEO of Air Atlanta Icelandic</span><span data-contrast="auto">,</span><span data-contrast="auto"> told</span><span data-contrast="auto"> </span><i><span data-contrast="auto">Cargo Facts</span></i><span data-contrast="auto">. </span><span data-ccp-props="{"201341983":0,"335559740":276}"> </span> <span data-contrast="auto">In the following analysis, we look at how </span><span data-contrast="auto">the past year’s</span><span data-contrast="auto"> aircraft transactions </span><span data-contrast="auto">— </span><span data-contrast="auto">including reactivations</span><span data-contrast="auto"> —</span><span data-contrast="auto"> have led to overall changes in the widebody fleet, </span><span data-contrast="auto">and </span><span data-contrast="auto">tak</span><span data-contrast="auto">e</span><span data-contrast="auto"> a closer look at developments by manufacturer, carrier region and type.</span><span data-ccp-props="{"201341983":0,"335559740":276}"> </span> The table below shows the widebody freighter aircraft in service as of mid-January 2021. <span data-contrast="auto">For these purposes, we have grouped together airlines and affiliates that belong to the same parent group, or those </span><span data-contrast="auto">with</span><span data-contrast="auto"> common investors</span><span data-contrast="auto">;</span><span data-contrast="auto"> </span><span data-contrast="auto">t</span><span data-contrast="auto">hese have been marked with an asterisk.</span> Click on each column header to sort by ascending or descending order. <span data-contrast="auto">The categories of airline used in this analysis </span><span data-contrast="auto">are</span><span data-contrast="auto">: combination carriers that operate both scheduled passenger and freighter flights, such as Korean Air and China Southern; express carriers with their own AOCs, including FedEx and UPS; scheduled all-cargo carriers including Silk Way West Airlines and Nippon Cargo Airlines; and specialist cargo carriers (e.g. Air Transport International and Air Atlanta Icelandic). In 2020, many scheduled all-cargo carriers operated a larger share of unscheduled charter flights due to the pandemic, but this factor did not lead to any category reassignments. The majority of carriers in the specialist group operate most of their freighters on an ACMI or CMI basis in support of combination and express carriers.</span>[/vc_column_text][vc_separator][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row full_width="stretch_row_content" vc_row_background=""][vc_column][vc_column_text][wpdatatable id=62 table_view=regular] <h6><em>Sources: Carriers, lessors, manufacturers, CF FAT Database, various fleet-tracking services</em></h6> [/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text] <h4><b><span data-contrast="auto">Out of storage</span></b><span data-ccp-props="{"201341983":0,"335559740":276}"> </span></h4> <span data-contrast="auto">As airlines grounded passenger aircraft by the thousands </span><span data-contrast="auto">during 2020</span><span data-contrast="auto"> — especially from around April to at least August — previously parked freighter aircraft began making their way out of short- and long-term storage.</span><span data-ccp-props="{"201341983":0,"335559740":276}"> </span> <span data-contrast="auto">Between January 2020 and January 2021, </span><i><span data-contrast="auto">Cargo Facts</span></i><span data-contrast="auto"> recorded more than ten 747 freighters </span><span data-contrast="auto">rejoining</span><span data-contrast="auto"> the active fleet</span><span data-contrast="auto">,</span><span data-contrast="auto"> mostly as a direct result of the pandemic</span><span data-contrast="auto">,</span><span data-contrast="auto"> with the vast majority being converted -400Fs.</span><span data-ccp-props="{"201341983":0,"335559740":276}"> </span> [caption id="attachment_415382" align="alignright" width="560"]<img class="wp-image-415382" src="https://cargofacts.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Aerotranscargo-2.jpg" alt="Aerotranscargo [2]" width="560" height="350" /> Aerotranscargo reactivated three 747-400Fs last year. (Photo/Aerotranscargo)[/caption]<span data-contrast="auto">Atlas Air, which had parked four converted 747-400Fs (24833, 26557, 27174 and 27062) around the end of 2019 due to weak charter demand, brought them all out of storage by October</span><span data-contrast="auto"> 2020</span><span data-contrast="auto">, and affiliate Southern Air began flying a 777F (35606) after almost a year of storage. In November</span><span data-contrast="auto"> 2020</span><span data-contrast="auto">, Western Global Airlines put into service the production -400F (29258, ex-Atlas Air) it had acquired earl</span><span data-contrast="auto">ier in the year </span><span data-contrast="auto">and deployed a couple more MD-11Fs, while fellow U.S.-based carrier National Airlines reactivated three ex-Cathay Pacific 747-400BCFs (26547, 27217 and 25068) that had been parked since 2013. National recently told </span><i><span data-contrast="auto">Cargo Facts</span></i><span data-contrast="auto"> that it may consider adding more 747s to its five-strong freighter fleet.</span><span data-ccp-props="{"201341983":0,"335559740":276}"> </span> <span data-contrast="auto">As for the express integrators, FedEx stored several A300-600Fs and MD-11Fs in the first few months of 2020</span><span data-contrast="auto">,</span><span data-contrast="auto"> but quickly brought them back into service in the second half, </span><span data-contrast="auto">and </span><span data-contrast="auto">in November </span><span data-contrast="auto">2020, </span><span data-contrast="auto">UPS finally began flying the first two ex-Lufthansa MD-11Fs it had acquired at the end of 2019 (48805 and 48806).</span><span data-ccp-props="{"201341983":0,"335559740":276}"> </span> <span data-contrast="auto">In Europe, Moldova-based </span><span data-contrast="auto">Aerotranscargo</span><span data-contrast="auto"> expanded its operational fleet </span><span data-contrast="auto">last year</span><span data-contrast="auto"> by bringing back into service three converted 747s: a 747-400BCF (24459, ex-Thai) and two ex-Air Cargo Global 747-400BDSFs (25075 and 24998).</span><span data-ccp-props="{"201341983":0,"335559740":276}"> </span> <span data-contrast="auto">Additionally, Bermuda-based Longtail Aviation accelerated its plans to enter the cargo market with the addition of its first 747-400F (27503, ex-Cargolux) on lease from U.A.E.-based Aquiline International in June, and added a 747-400BCF (24975, ex-</span><span data-contrast="auto">Rubystar</span><span data-contrast="auto"> Airways) on lease from </span><span data-contrast="auto">CargoJetX</span><span data-contrast="auto"> in November. The carrier had previously told </span><i><span data-contrast="auto">Cargo Facts</span></i><span data-contrast="auto"> it </span><span data-contrast="auto">might </span><span data-contrast="auto">expand to a fleet of three to eight freighters in 2021.</span><span data-ccp-props="{"201341983":0,"335559740":276}"> </span> <span data-contrast="auto">We note that the two 747-8Fs (37562 and 37563) previously operated by </span><span data-contrast="auto">Saudia</span><span data-contrast="auto"> continue to be parked in the desert</span><span data-contrast="auto">, where they </span><span data-contrast="auto">have been for </span><span data-contrast="auto">more than </span><span data-contrast="auto">a year. At the same time, there are just a few remaining 747-400 freighters still in long-term storage.</span><span data-ccp-props="{"201341983":0,"335559740":276}"> </span> <h4><b><span data-contrast="auto">Combination carrier control of the fleet declines</span></b><span data-ccp-props="{"201341983":0,"335559738":240,"335559739":240,"335559740":276}"> </span></h4> <span data-contrast="auto">Although freighters </span><span data-contrast="auto">within the fleets of many combination carriers </span><span data-contrast="auto">enjoyed a level of appreciation unseen in recent years, passenger airlines continue to control a shrinking share of the large widebody freighter fleet.</span><span data-ccp-props="{"201341983":0,"335559738":240,"335559739":240,"335559740":276}"> </span> <span data-contrast="auto">In 2020, large widebody deliveries to combination carriers slightly outpaced deliveries to express carriers, but this was more than offset by the abovementioned reactivations. Six combination carriers took delivery of fourteen 777Fs, compared to a total of twelve 777Fs and 747-8Fs delivered to the express carriers UPS, DHL and FedEx. </span><span data-ccp-props="{"201341983":0,"335559738":240,"335559739":240,"335559740":276}"> </span> <span data-contrast="auto">Combination carriers’ control of the large widebody fleet dropped </span><span data-contrast="auto">to 33% in 2020 from 35% in 2019,</span><span data-contrast="auto"> and</span><span data-contrast="auto"> </span><span data-contrast="auto">from 36% in 2018. This rebalance is likely to continue based on unfulfilled orders. Absent additional orders, the ratio could hold steadier in the coming years due to new orders from combination carriers. Slightly less than one-third of Boeing’s 777F order backlog is held by combination carriers, whereas express carriers control slightly less </span><span data-contrast="auto">at</span><span data-contrast="auto"> 28%. </span><span data-ccp-props="{"201341983":0,"335559738":240,"335559739":240,"335559740":276}"> </span> <span data-contrast="auto">The medium-widebody segment continues to thrive among express carriers and those who operate on its behalf. Some 62.8% of the 40-to-80-tonne</span><b><span data-contrast="auto"> </span></b><span data-contrast="auto">segment is operated by express carriers, and nearly 88% of the backlog is bound for express carriers.</span> <img class="size-full wp-image-415380 aligncenter" src="https://cargofacts.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Widebody-distribution-2021.png" alt="" width="745" height="590" /> <h4><b><span data-contrast="auto">Express redistributes geographical distribution</span></b><span data-ccp-props="{"201341983":0,"335559738":240,"335559739":240,"335559740":276}"> </span></h4> <span data-contrast="auto">More than 70% of the medium widebody freighters are operated by airlines based in North America, nearly all by or in support of the integrators and</span><span data-contrast="auto"> —</span><span data-contrast="auto"> more recently</span><span data-contrast="auto"> —</span><span data-contrast="auto"> for Amazon. This is up slightly from last year, and future deliveries indicate the North American share will increase going forward. FedEx, UPS, and the airline subsidiaries of Air Transport Services Group (ATSG) and Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings are the main operators.</span><span data-ccp-props="{"201341983":0,"335559738":240,"335559739":240,"335559740":276}"> </span> <span data-contrast="auto">North America-based carriers</span><span data-contrast="auto">’</span><span data-contrast="auto"> share of the medium- and large-widebody freighter fleet continues to grow. Nearly 47% of the large widebody fleet is based in North America, up from 40% in 2017. UPS’ growing 747-8F fleet has been a major driver behind growth of the North American fleet. </span><span data-contrast="auto">F</span><span data-contrast="auto">leet additions and reactivations at specialist and ACMI carriers such as Atlas Air, </span><span data-contrast="auto">Kalitta</span><span data-contrast="auto"> Air, National Airlines and Western Global Airlines have </span><span data-contrast="auto">all </span><span data-contrast="auto">contributed</span><span data-contrast="auto"> to this growth</span><span data-contrast="auto">.</span><span data-ccp-props="{"201341983":0,"335559738":240,"335559739":240,"335559740":276}"> </span> <span data-contrast="auto">Asia Pacific’s share of the large-category fleet </span><span data-contrast="auto">fell one percentage point to 22%, down from 28% </span><span data-contrast="auto">just two years ago. Asia-based combination carriers have kept their fleets relatively stable for the past three years, while express carriers in the region operate far fewer large widebodies than their North American and European counterparts. SF Airlines operates two 747-400ERFs and ACMI-leases additional capacity from Atlas Air </span><span data-contrast="auto">— </span><span data-contrast="auto">a drop in the bucket compared to UPS’ forty-unit MD-11F and thirty-three-unit 747F fleet.</span><span data-ccp-props="{"201341983":0,"335559738":240,"335559739":240,"335559740":276}"> </span> <span data-contrast="auto">Despite controlling a smaller share of the freighter fleet compared to past years, 2020</span><span data-contrast="auto"> was relatively active for the Asia-Pacific region’s combination carriers. China Cargo Airlines and China Southern Airlines each added a net of two 777Fs to their fleets, and China Airlines’ active fleet increased by two aircraft following the delivery of two 777Fs. EVA Air will further grow its fleet with the addition of three 777Fs. However, this is expected to be offset </span><span data-contrast="auto">by </span><span data-contrast="auto">China Airlines</span><span data-contrast="auto">’</span><span data-contrast="auto"> eventual retire</span><span data-contrast="auto">ment of</span><span data-contrast="auto"> some of its 747-400Fs, even if </span><span data-contrast="auto">this does not occur</span><span data-contrast="auto"> in the next </span><span data-contrast="auto">year</span><span data-contrast="auto"> or </span><span data-contrast="auto">two</span><span data-contrast="auto">. The merger brewing between Asiana and Korean Air</span><a href="https://aircargoworld.com/news/carriers/korean-air-acquires-asiana-more-consolidation-expected/"><span data-contrast="auto"> </span></a><a href="https://aircargoworld.com/news/carriers/korean-air-acquires-asiana-more-consolidation-expected/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer"><span data-contrast="none">could consolidate the freighter fleet operated by South Korea-based carriers</span></a><span data-contrast="auto">. </span><span data-contrast="auto">While no</span><span data-contrast="auto"> concrete cargo strategy has been unveiled, more details are expected in March. </span><span data-ccp-props="{"201341983":0,"335559738":240,"335559739":240,"335559740":276}"> </span> <span data-contrast="auto">In Europe, DHL Express is the primary contributor to net large-widebody freighter fleet growth. However, although five of the fourteen 777Fs</span><b><span data-contrast="auto"> </span></b><span data-contrast="auto">it ordered in 2018 have been placed on the European AOC of </span><span data-contrast="auto">AeroLogic</span><span data-contrast="auto">, another five are operated by </span><span data-contrast="auto">Kalitta</span><span data-contrast="auto"> Air and Southern Air. Because it is currently unclear which carrier will fly the remaining four under that order</span><span data-contrast="auto"> —</span><span data-contrast="auto"> as well as the eight ordered </span><span data-contrast="auto">in </span><span data-contrast="auto">January</span><span data-contrast="auto"> this year —</span><span data-contrast="auto"> we have included them </span><span data-contrast="auto">with </span><span data-contrast="auto">large widebodies on order for specialist operators</span><span data-contrast="auto">,</span><span data-contrast="auto"> but placed them in the European category for now.</span> <img class="size-full wp-image-415381 aligncenter" src="https://cargofacts.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Widebody-distribution-by-type-2021.png" alt="" width="979" height="388" /> <h4><b><span data-contrast="auto">Narrowing options for widebody freighters</span></b><span data-ccp-props="{"201341983":0,"335559738":240,"335559739":240,"335559740":276}"> </span></h4> <span data-contrast="auto">Airbus’ share of production freighters on order is now reduced to zero, after Turkey-based MNG Airlines — the only remaining customer on the A330-200F backlog — finally cancelled its long-stagnant order for three aircraft in December 2020. Although Airbus has not officially terminated the A330-200F program yet, it is doubtful the manufacturer will garner any new orders for the freighter, given the ramping up and maturation of Elbe </span><span data-contrast="auto">Flugzeugwerke’s</span><span data-contrast="auto"> (EFW) A330 conversion program and the likely continued decline of feedstock prices. EFW has three new customers</span><span data-contrast="auto"> since January 2020</span><span data-contrast="auto">: Stratos, CDB Aviation and Turkmenistan Airlines.</span><span data-ccp-props="{"201341983":0,"335559738":240,"335559739":240,"335559740":276}"> </span> <span data-contrast="auto">After Boeing </span><span data-contrast="auto">in July 2020</span><span data-contrast="auto"> formally announced the 747-8 program </span><span data-contrast="auto">would end</span><span data-contrast="auto"> in 2022, it emerged that Atlas Air</span><span data-contrast="auto">, not Volga-Dnepr Group,</span><span data-contrast="auto"> will take the final four frames to come off the final assembly line.</span><span data-ccp-props="{"201341983":0,"335559738":240,"335559739":240,"335559740":276}"> </span> <span data-contrast="auto">With that in mind, the only large widebody production freighter on offer right now is the 777F, which only has forty-one aircraft on firm order. On the conversion front, apart from the 777-300ERSF program, which will not have the first aircraft (32789) complete until at least 2023, the only other option is converting 747-400s with Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI)</span><span data-contrast="auto">. This </span><span data-contrast="auto">may see something of a renaissance in 2021.</span><span data-ccp-props="{"201341983":0,"335559738":240,"335559739":240,"335559740":276}"> </span> <span data-contrast="auto">Particularly for carriers with young 747-400s in their fleets, freighter conversion may be justified. Air Atlanta Icelandic had not seriously considered freighter conversion as an option for the seven 747-400 passenger aircraft it owned and operated through early 2020. When demand for ACMI-leased 747-400 capacity collapsed, the carrier moved to part</span><span data-contrast="auto"> </span><span data-contrast="auto">out three of these units, and has continued to hold onto four airframes </span><span data-contrast="auto">younger than</span><span data-contrast="auto"> twenty years old.</span><span data-ccp-props="{"201341983":0,"335559738":240,"335559739":240,"335559740":276}"> </span> <span data-contrast="auto">Taking that “leap of faith” and sending those aircraft into conversion would require a solid business case for the next ten years at least, said Hermannsson</span><span data-contrast="auto"> of Air Atlanta Icelandic</span><span data-contrast="auto">. </span><span data-ccp-props="{"201341983":0,"335559738":240,"335559739":240,"335559740":276}"> </span> <span data-contrast="auto">While the carrier isn’t willing to take that leap yet</span><span data-contrast="auto">,</span><span data-contrast="auto"> and would rather see passenger demand pull the aircraft back into service, “It’s definitely something that we are keeping an eye on and are evaluating,” </span><span data-contrast="auto">the CEO </span><span data-contrast="auto">said. </span><span data-ccp-props="{"201341983":0,"335559738":240,"335559739":240,"335559740":276}"> </span> <span data-contrast="auto">As of mid-January</span><span data-contrast="auto"> this year</span><span data-contrast="auto">, airfreight demand continued to outstrip capacity while the goal posts for passenger aviation </span><span data-contrast="auto">recovery</span><span data-contrast="auto"> move further down the field. “All the optimism around vaccines, and people starting to travel again</span><span data-contrast="auto"> —</span><span data-contrast="auto"> I think that's fading a little bit as reality settles in,” said Hermannsson. The prospects for airfreight, on the other hand, are brighter. “I think we’re going to have a fairly strong cargo year,” he </span><span data-contrast="auto">added</span><span data-contrast="auto">.</span> [<em>This feature first appeared in the <a href="https://cargofacts.com/wp-content/digital-issues/2021/02-feb-2021-cf/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">February 2021 issue</a> of Cargo Facts.</em>][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][/vc_column][/vc_row]