Operators restructure widebody freighter fleets

The widebody freighter market is entering a new era. The first 777 conversion program certification is imminent and deliveries of new production freighters from Airbus and Boeing will begin in two to three years. As operators await their arrival, many are adjusting their fleets to align with market demand and are implementing strategies to minimize costs. The widebody jet freighter fleet grew 2.7% year over year to 1,365 in-service aircraft as of Jan. 31, based on Cargo Facts research. This was due to the emergence of new widebody operators coupled with interest in older freighters from secondary operators. The YoY growth of thirty-six aircraft in 2023 was a decrease from the forty-four additions between Jan. 31, 2022 and Jan. 31, 2023. This analysis takes into account only jet aircraft built by Airbus, Boeing and McDonnell Douglas. The 1,365 widebody freighters were spread across 102 operators which, for this analysis, fall into four categories: Combination carriers, such as Qatar Airways and China Southern; Express carriers like DHL Express, FedEx Express and UPS Airlines; Scheduled all-cargo carriers specializing in freight-only flights, like Cargolux and Challenge Group; and Specialist carriers that are service providers in the ACMI, CMI and own-controlled segments, such as Atlas Air and Kalitta Air. The full table on this page shows the global widebody jet freighter fleet as of Jan. 31. Airlines and affiliates belonging to the same parent group or those with common investors are marked with an asterisk. A momentum shift in widebody orders Airbus overtook Boeing in the number of production freighter orders garnered in the past twelve months; Airbus sold fifteen A350Fs compared to Boeing’s eight 777Fs. Despite those orders, the backlog of large-widebody freighters decreased by eleven compared to a year ago and stood at 161 at the end of January, almost evenly split among the A350F, 777-8F and 777F. Because there have been no new orders for the 767-300F since January 2023, the medium-widebody backlog dropped to thirty-seven and the segment’s share of all production freighters on order also fell below 20%. With the continuing retirement of 747s and MD-11s, the in-service fleet of large widebodies as of Jan. 31, was 643, ten units less than a year ago. The number of MD-11Fs decreased the most, from 111 to eighty-six, while the 777F was the only type to increase, going from 236 to 262. On the other hand, the number of medium-widebody freighters in service as of Jan. 31, increased to 722 from 676. This was driven by delivery of twenty new 767-300Fs, which pushed the type up 9% YoY, and the addition of twenty-nine converted 767-300ERs six A330-300P2Fs and five A330-200P2Fs. New players enter segment Since Jan. 31, 2023, ten new carriers have joined the list of widebody freighter operators, split evenly between large widebodies and medium widebodies, and between production and converted freighters. China’s Air Central, Bulgaria’s Compass Air Cargo and the United Kingdom’s One Air began flying 747-400Fs for the first time, and Uzbekistan-based My Freighter put into service its first 747-200F. Hawaiian Airlines started CMI operations for Amazon with the e-tailer’s first A330-300P2F on lease from Altavair. That 2018-vintage aircraft is the youngest A330 to be converted. Turkmenistan Airlines entered the A330P2F space and now operates a pair of 2007-vintage A330-200P2Fs. As for Boeing medium widebodies, Air Tanzania, DHL Air Austria and Georgian Airlines each started flying their first 767 freighters. China Postal Airlines was the only new 777F operator in 2023. Retirements With the exceptions of 747-8Fs, younger production -400Fs and a few MD-11Fs, twin-engine freighters will carry most of the payload in the long-haul widebody segment by the end of the decade. Since Jan. 31, 2023, twenty-five MD-11Fs have left service. UPS removed six units from its fleet and expects to deactivate nine more this year, while FedEx accelerated its MD-11F retirements in May 2023 and expects to fully retire the aircraft by 2028. [caption id="attachment_56867346" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] China Airlines was the second-largest 747-400F operators in 2023. (Photo/Cargo Facts)[/caption] Taiwan-based China Airlines sold two 747-400Fs to Air Atlanta Icelandic in September 2023 as it transitions to 777Fs. The combination carrier also revealed in a May 2023 filing that it had entered negotiations to sell five of its 747-400Fs. China Airlines was the second-largest operator of 747-400Fs a year ago, with seventeen units. But that fleet has since been cut by about 50%, and the carrier took delivery of its seventh 777F in July 2023. Meanwhile, China Cargo Airlines ceased its 747-400F operations in June 2023, after it overhauled its freighter fleet by replacing older quad- and twin-engine freighters with new 777Fs. Some quad-engine freighters removed from service have found new homes: Bulgaria-based Compass Air Cargo , Orlando-based National Airlines and U.K.-based One Air expanded their fleets with 747Fs. And it wasn’t just 747s that have found new operators. Panama-based Cargo Three reached a deal with FedEx in 2023 for three of the eleven ex-FedEx MD-10-30Fs the express integrator had removed from its fleet in 2022. With many older freighters finding new roles in the secondary market, the distribution of widebody freighters continues to shift as the industry transitions. Express carrier orders dip Noticeable changes have taken place in disbursement of large- and medium-widebody freighters. Boeing’s combined orders for widebody freighters increased by nearly ten percentage points YoY, but orders for the manufacturer’s large production freighters dropped to 68.94%. This was partly attributable to Airbus increasing its share of overall widebody orders to 25.25% by the end of January 2024. Express carriers, which now account for all the medium-widebody freighters on order, saw their total fleet order share drop by nearly nine percentage points YoY, while the number of aircraft in service in the large and medium segments remain similar to a year ago. The decrease in orders stems from emissions and noise limitations which mean Boeing will no longer be able to build the 767 production freighter in its current form after 2027 . [caption id="attachment_56867347" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] UPS and FedEx are the only remaining customers with new 767-300Fs on order. (Photo/Cargo Facts)[/caption] DHL, FedEx and UPS combined accounted for about 220 of the 243 medium-widebody production freighters Boeing has built to date. During the past few years, FedEx and UPS have ramped up their orders for the 767-300F as they seek younger freighter types. Boeing and Airbus have not unveiled plans for a new medium-widebody production freighter prototype that could replace the 767-300F; both manufacturers remain focused on developing their 777-8F and A350F production freighters, respectively. As Cargo Facts had predicted last year, the widebody fleet’s growth in 2023 declined YoY with a net growth of thirty-six freighters, eight fewer than in 2022. With fleet retirements likely to increase this year, lift capacity in the segment will dwindle as operators continue to remove freighters that drive up operational costs. Slowing growth Growth of the widebody fleet in the past twelve months was hindered by conversion and certification delays. For example, the first A330P2F to be converted at the Mobile Aerospace Engineering facility in Mobile, Ala., (BFM) flew away in October 2023 after arriving in March 2022. That conversion took longer than expected, even for a new conversion line, sources have told Cargo Facts . IAI’s 777-300ERSF conversion program is also behind schedule. The company had previously planned to achieve certification by the end of 2023. However, IAI now hopes to receive its STC around April and will soon conduct certification flights with FAA personnel on board, IAI told Cargo Facts at the recent Singapore Airshow 2024. A weaker overall market has led some customers to pause, postpone or cancel conversion slots. ATSG, whose leasing arm, CAM, is the largest 767 freighter lessor, announced a new chief executive in November 2023 and said that it would not send any more 767s for conversion after the seven already in process as part of a move to reduce costs. Conversely, the very strong passenger market has meant airlines and lessors are choosing to keep many 777-300ERs and A330s in passenger service, reducing the availability of conversion feedstock. Cargo Facts believes that, while the widebody freighter fleet will continue to grow in 2024, the growth rate may be even slower than in 2023. However, by January 2025, the active fleet will almost certainly include at least one 777 conversion type as more 747s, MD-11s, 767-200s and A300s head into retirement. Cargo Facts Asia 2024, the essential event for stakeholders in the Asia-Pacific region, will take place April 15-17 in Singapore. Learn more and register by Friday, March 1 to take advantage of early-bird pricing.

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