Freighter outlook: Manufacturers revise forecasts on market strength

The freighter announcements at the Farnborough International Airshow last month were a clear indication of confidence in the cargo sector, and the twenty-year commercial forecasts recently released by major aircraft manufacturers have been changed to reflect the strength of the airfreight market. Boeing now anticipates 2,795 freighter aircraft to join the global fleet between now and 2041, 185 more units than it had predicted in its 2021 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO). These consist of 515 production large widebodies, 425 production medium widebodies, 555 widebody conversions and 1,300 narrowbody conversions. Of note is that, of those 185 additional aircraft, 135 are conversions. Upping its forecast for the next twenty years, U.S.-based Boeing now expects to see a total of 3,610 freighters worldwide by the end of 2041, compared with the 3,435 in the plane-maker’s 2021 CMO. “The c-commerce market is driving the largest part of our upward adjustment,” Darren Hulst, vice president of commercial marketing at Boeing, told Cargo Facts at Farnborough. “Obviously, that is largely served by standard-body conversions, but we also saw increases in the medium and large production segments.” Standard-body segment to grow 90% The standard-body, or narrowbody, segment will grow by around 90% compared with 2021, according to Boeing. There are now more than 100 737NG freighters in service, with the number rapidly climbing as additional conversion lines start producing more. This has been particularly pronounced in the case of 737-800Fs, resulting in older 737 Classics cascading to secondary and tertiary markets. “There will be another wave where the -800s then go into those markets as well,” Hulst said. “Based on what the age of the existing Classic converted freighter space is, once they get past thirty years, we’re going to see those aircraft need to be retired and replaced.” Using Boeing’s total of 2,250 for the number of freighters in service at the end of 2021, this means 1,435 are expected to leave the fleet. “Thinking about the market today, a little over half of the medium and large freighters in the marketplace are going to need to be replaced in the next five or ten years,” Hulst said. “So that’s driving structural demand as well.” Regionally, while North America will still account for the largest share of freighter aircraft overall by the end of 2041 at 1,290 — representing a growth of 37% over 2019’s total — China’s freighter fleet will more than triple in the next twenty years to 820 units. The Asia-Pacific region will have a combined total of 1,260 freighters by the end of 2041. Airbus also expects global market growth Meanwhile, Airbus also amended its Global Market Forecast (GMF) to reflect a stronger cargo market, although not to the same extent as its American counterpart. In its latest version, the European manufacturer expects the number of freighters around the world to grow from 2,030 at the end of 2020 to a total of 3,070 in 2041. That total is ninety more than the 2,980 Airbus had previously predicted in its 2021 GMF. While Boeing’s CMO sees almost 2,800 freighters joining the global fleet overall, in its GMF Airbus believes 2,440 freighters will be added from 2022 to 2041, with 1,400 serving as replacements and 1,040 for growth. Though the total number of additions in the next twenty years remains the same as 2021’s GMF, Airbus has shifted its forecast for the various segments: Large widebodies are up by twenty to 560, while medium widebodies and narrowbodies are each lower by ten units. ATR predicts highest growth in Asian, Latin American markets Turboprop freighters were not included in the Boeing or Airbus forecasts but, according to France-based manufacturer ATR’s market forecast for 2022 to 2041, released at Farnborough, there will be a need for 460 freighters in this size category over the next twenty years — and a total of 550 units in service by the end of 2041. ATR expects the distribution of turboprop freighters to change dramatically over the next twenty years. Whereas the 380 aircraft in service at the end of 2021 consisted of 145 in the seventy-seater size segment, eighty-eight in the fifty-seater segment and 147 in the thirty-seater segment, the global fleet will consist of 510 seventy-seaters and forty smaller fifty-seaters by 2041. There is “ample feedstock” for conversions in the seventy-seater segment along with the availability of new-build freighters, according to ATR. The only customer to date for its factory ATR 72-600F is FedEx, which has now taken delivery of seven units. ATR told Cargo Facts that it had decided not to distinguish between new and converted aircraft in its forecast, but increasing online retail will benefit turboprop freighters generally, with China, Southeast Asia and Latin America holding the most growth potential. The company said that most of the ten, second-hand ATRs it had delivered in 2021 were converted into freighters and that there were seventeen ATR freighter conversions in 2021. New to the regional freighter market is Embraer, which announced earlier in 2022 a conversion program for its E190 and E195 aircraft to occupy what it calls the “crossover” segment between turboprops and narrowbodies. “There’s just no one in that space,” Johann Bordais, president and CEO of Embraer Services & Support, told Cargo Facts. “We’ve seen it growing over the last ten years by 18% and we decided we need to be there.” The Brazil-based company sees the need for 700 additions of small and crossover regional freighters from 2022 to 2041, with 65% of these being used for growth and 35% replacing existing aircraft. Even the 737-300F can potentially be replaced by an E-Jet freighter, Bordais told Cargo Facts . Meanwhile, Cargo Facts’ affiliate Cargo Facts Consulting released the latest version of its own twenty-year freighter forecast earlier this year at the Cargo Facts EMEA event in Dubai. Cargo Facts Consulting predicts an overall need for 2,649 jet freighters through 2041, including 1,304 net additions and 1,345 replacements. By the end of 2041, there will be a total of 3,411 freighter aircraft in active service: 1,074 large widebodies, 1,007 medium widebodies and 1,330 narrowbodies, according to the forecast. This feature was originally published in the August 2022 issue of Cargo Facts. Cargo Facts Symposium, taking place LIVE Oct. 19-21 at the InterContinental San Diego, is the essential event for stakeholders in the air cargo industry. Learn more and register today to take advantage of early-bird pricing.

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