Boeing 747 production to end in 2022

Boeing today acknowledged a formal end date to 747 production. “ We anticipate c omplet ing production for the iconic 747 in 2022 , ” said President and CEO Dave Calhoun during an earnings call with analysts . Let it sink in for a moment. Yes, the writing has been on the wall for some time now as the temporary low-rate production of six units per year introduced in 2016 has bec o me permanent . Boein g has since then acknowledged it would move to end production absent “sufficient orders . ” But the can was kicked further down the road with a blockbuster fourteen-unit 747-8F order from UPS later that year , and the can bounced again w hen UPS exercised options for fourteen more in 201 8 , provid ing a glimmer of hope to optimists holding out for another such order. Boeing will not be taking that order and the production rate is to remain fixed at six units per year through 202 2 . I t’s the end of the line for the 747, and the signal to the air cargo industry should be heard loud and clear : it’s time to prepar e for a world w here new-build noseloading freighters are no longer available. See also : In shuttering 747 program, Boeing shuns consortium’s proposal

“ The end of the 747 program will shake the foundations of the global air cargo business. No other aircraft offers the same mix of unit cost and capabilities ,” said Frederic Horst, managing director of Cargo Facts Consulting. Roughly half of the current large widebody freighter fleet comprise s of 747Fs, according to Horst . [caption id="attachment_414204" align="aligncenter" width="600"] As of the end of July 2020, Boeing has fifteen 747-8Fs left on the backlog. Production will stay at six units a year until 2022. (Photo: Boeing)[/caption] Make no mistake, 747 freighters will continue to operate for decades to come – there are , after all, few large widebody alternatives. Just two other types, the 777F and the MD-11F, make up the remainder of the fleet. Boeing gave it s assurance that it would support the program beyond 2022. “ O ur commitment to our customers does not end at delivery ... we will continue to support the 747 franchise, its operations and sustainment well into the future , " said Calhoun. Cargolux CEO Richard Forson previously told Cargo Facts he expected most 747-400Fs will be phased-out by the 2030 s , while the -8F could continue to fly beyond 2040. Cargo Facts Consulting estimates the number of nose door capable aircraft operating in the large widebody fleet will drop to 128 in 2039 , down from 245 today . “ This will have fundamental implications for the outsized cargo market ,” said Horst . Even prior to today’s announcement, at least one major 747-8F operator was said to be in the process of purchasing new-build G Enx engines , a source familiar with the deal told Cargo Facts. See also: As Triumph idles 747 component production, will Boeing follow?

Concurrent with its earnings release, Boeing also announced 777X deliveries are delayed until 2022. Deliveries were previously expected to begin in 2021. Production rates for the combined 777 legacy and -X programs will be reduced from the current rate of 2.5 per month, to 2 per month in 2021, instead of the planned three - per - month rate. N o rate changes were made to the 767 , which will remain at three units per month. As of the end of July 2020, Boeing has fifteen 747-8Fs left to deliver — twelve to UPS and three to Volga-Dnepr — as well as 371 more 777s on order, including forty-three 777Fs . It’s currently unclear if Volga-Dnepr will still take up the three 747 frames — Boeing shows a deduction of three 747s under an ASC 606 adjustment, meaning it does not expect to be able to deliver them . With recovery expected to be slow and vary by region, Boeing is also undertaking other cost-cutting measures across its commercial airplane division. This includes reducing the company’s total headcount by 10% , and further production rate reductions to the 787 p rogram . In 2021, 787 build rates will drop to 6 units per month in 2021, down from the current rate of 10 units per month "to further de - risk our skyline," said Calhoun. The reduction has prompted a study that will consider consolidating production of the airframe into a single location. The company currently has two assembly sites, one in Washington State and a second in South Carolina. As for the 737 MAX, the FAA completed certification flight tests, and Boeing continues to work with regulators to return the aircraft to service. MAX production resumed in May and is expected to gradually increase to 31 units per month by the beginning of 2022. In light of the crisis, Boeing’s t otal backlog stands at 4,500 commercial planes valued at $326 billion.

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